Anticipation of tariffs drove gold and pharmaceutical swings, Brad Setser observes

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07.10.2026

Anticipation of tariffs drove gold and pharmaceutical swings, Brad Setser observes — Gold and pharma trade volatility linked to tariffs

Brad Setser highlights unusual swings in gold and pharmaceutical trade caused by expectations of tariffs that did not come to pass.

According to Setser, these market movements—first in imports, then in exports—were driven by anticipation rather than actual changes in U.S. trade policy. The volatility seen in these sectors was not explained by standard economic models but by market participants positioning ahead of potential but unrealized tariffs.

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Setser has previously discussed China’s manufacturing surplus growing above $4 trillion, with a customs surplus surpassing $2.5 trillion, driven by strong export performance here. He also observed China moving away from property investment in favor of increasing exports, creating new challenges for global markets here. These earlier analyses provide context for his focus on trade volatility linked to tariff expectations.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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