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Ernie Tedeschi: ARIMA forecast of core goods PCE shows similar pattern to NYFedResearch approach

Ernie Tedeschi: ARIMA forecast of core goods PCE shows similar pattern to NYFedResearch approach
ARIMA forecast matches NYFedResearch findings

Ernie Tedeschi points out that a simple univariate ARIMA forecast of core goods PCE, using data before 2025, yields results much like those from the NYFedResearch approach.

He adds that the NYFedResearch method remains preferable in his view, as it factors in goods with differing tariffs post-2025, such as NAND flash memory.

Tedeschi previously reported that U.S. employment added 29,000 jobs in September 2026, while unemployment rose to 4.18% and job market revisions continued here. He also highlighted that non-AI SaaS firms experienced accelerated revenue growth after a significant market sell-off, citing Stripe data here. These observations follow his analysis of inflation models and tariff considerations in the current discussion.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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