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Michael Kao: UST yield curve shifts signal risks for economy

Michael Kao: UST yield curve shifts signal risks for economy
Yield curve shifts raise economic concerns

Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, assesses recent changes in the U.S. Treasury yield curve, noting a significant two-month shift. Kao believes current expectations for higher Fed Funds rates may be overextrapolated and suggests the economy could face challenges before reaching a 4.75% rate amid the ongoing AI buildout financed by large-scale borrowing.

Kao previously stated that TLT showed signs of a capitulation bottom after purchasing short-term call options during what he perceived as an oversold period. He also observed the breakdown of the TLT double-bottom as volatility increased in October 2026. These observations highlight his ongoing focus on U.S. fixed income market shifts.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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