Macro Strategy and Derivatives Insight by Michael Kao
Michael Kao is the founder of Kao Family Office and author of Kaoboy Musings, a Substack followed by more than 15,000 readers, including hedge fund managers and crypto traders. With 30+ years in asset management and former leadership at Akanthos Capital, Kao offers analysis that integrates volatility structures, inflation derivatives, and digital assets.
In 2025, Kao dissected the crypto market’s reaction to the AI boom and rising real yields, mapping them to altcoin performance cycles and Ethereum Layer-2 traction. His frameworks on reflexivity and duration risk have informed institutional investment theses involving wrapped yield tokens and Bitcoin correlation decay.
Kao’s cross-disciplinary insights deliver a powerful lens for interpreting crypto markets through volatility regimes, macro cycles, and behavioral feedback loops.
Michael Kao: Credit conditions now key signal as debt replaces equity upstream
Michael Kao, Michael Kao, points out that small fluctuations in end demand can have a significant impact upstream, particularly where chips, data centers, and power are involved. He observes that ...
CLO equity CEFs are ripe for acquisition and liquidation, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, Michael Kao, suggests that CLO equity closed-end funds (CEFs) could be appealing targets for acquisition and liquidation by private equity or SPACs. Kao points out that when these ...
Michael Kao: CLO equity CEF valuations differ from BSL market activity
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, observed a significant disconnect between what CLO equity closed-end funds (CEFs) are implying and the actual developments in the broadly syndicated loan (BSL) ...
AI trade breaks down and bonds advance, Michael Kao notes
The AI trade has seen a notable reversal and bonds have rallied into a hot CPI print, which Michael Kao described as signaling a growth scare, with the so-called Debt Governor remaining active. ...
Michael Kao: Macro sentiment weakens despite strong earnings from tech leaders
Earnings season has arrived, with several major technology companies releasing positive results. However, macro sentiment in the market has become unstable, according to Michael Kao, chief ...
CLO CEF Dashboard launched for paid subscribers, Michael Kao writes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, announced the release of the CLO CEF Dashboard for paid subscribers in a message referencing October 19, 2026. Kao directed interested users to the Subscriber ...
Michael Kao: Calls for lower rates may precede downturn
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, cautioned that while many are concerned about yields returning to pre-GFC levels, a significant drop in rates could be tied to an economic and market downturn. ...
A return to 2-3% Fed Funds could mean a harsh downturn, Michael Kao warns
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, cautioned that while many are focused on the recent backup in yields, the most probable route back to a 2-3% Federal Funds rate would be through a significant ...
Michael Kao: Some investors in GSE shares benefited from the Trump Trade but others may face losses
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, reflected on his previous view regarding investments in both preferred and common shares of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). He stated that those who ...
Bond yields, jobs data and Hormuz risk drive markets, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, provides his end-of-week roundup covering macroeconomic and geopolitical trends. Kao highlights key themes including a surge in long-term bond yields, softer ...
Michael Kao: UST yield curve shifts signal risks for economy
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, assesses recent changes in the U.S. Treasury yield curve, noting a significant two-month shift. Kao believes current expectations for higher Fed Funds rates may ...
Market sees renewed volatility for TLT, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, comments on the failure of the TLT double-bottom pattern in the market as of October 7, 2026. Kao humorously likens the situation to Wile E. Coyote, implying ...
Michael Kao: Long-end rates pressure equities as growth supports high-duration stocks
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, uses a metaphor from Wile E. Coyote to describe current market conditions in equities. He notes that a rise in long-end interest rates has effectively removed ...
Long end hits two-decade highs then pulls back, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, analyzes recent dramatic moves in the long end of the yield curve. He observes that rates reached two-decade highs before pulling back on softer Friday jobs ...
Michael Kao: TLT shows signs of capitulation bottom as short-term calls bought
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, observed what he describes as a capitulation bottom in TLT on 10/1/26. He disclosed having purchased short-term call options, expressing his view that the ...
Rate angst affects some sectors while long duration equities remain strong, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, cio at Akadia Capital, reflects on market dynamics as of September 28, 2026. Kao observes that while concerns over interest rates heavily influence rate sensitive sectors, many long ...
Michael Kao: Yield curve shift in 2Y over past month is notable
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, reflects on the dramatic moves in the yield curve over the past month, particularly highlighting a significant shift in the 2-year segment. Kao observes that ...
Jobs shock and yield surge driven by bond market trends, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, analyzes the impact of an unexpected surge in jobs data on U.S. Treasury yields, emphasizing that rising yields are supported by ongoing bond market ...
Michael Kao: Disinflationary productivity-led growth needed to address deficit challenges
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, emphasizes the importance of disinflationary productivity-led growth as the primary solution to address the U.S. deficit. He warns that without such growth, ...
Warsh delivers hawkish remarks amid shifts in Iran’s leverage, Michael Kao states
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, questions Warsh’s stated intention to avoid forward guidance, observing that his recent commentary sounds notably hawkish. Kao also highlights developments ...
Michael Kao: UrbanKaoberg is a resource for earnings and valuation analysis
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, highlights an update about UrbanKaoberg shared on August 27, 2026. UrbanKaoberg is positioned as a one-stop platform during earnings season, offering tools for ...
