Macro Strategy and Derivatives Insight by Michael Kao
Michael Kao is the founder of Kao Family Office and author of Kaoboy Musings, a Substack followed by more than 15,000 readers, including hedge fund managers and crypto traders. With 30+ years in asset management and former leadership at Akanthos Capital, Kao offers analysis that integrates volatility structures, inflation derivatives, and digital assets.
In 2025, Kao dissected the crypto market’s reaction to the AI boom and rising real yields, mapping them to altcoin performance cycles and Ethereum Layer-2 traction. His frameworks on reflexivity and duration risk have informed institutional investment theses involving wrapped yield tokens and Bitcoin correlation decay.
Kao’s cross-disciplinary insights deliver a powerful lens for interpreting crypto markets through volatility regimes, macro cycles, and behavioral feedback loops.
Michael Kao: OpenAI files for IPO, raises questions about current market conditions
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, comments on OpenAI's decision to file for an IPO, joining other companies entering public markets. Kao questions whether this trend indicates the market might ...
Debate surrounds 100x revenue valuations and capital gains taxes, Michael Kao argues
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, critiques the rationale behind justifying extremely high company valuations based on revenue multiples. In his commentary, Kao highlights that some investors ...
Michael Kao: Dollar expected to make a strong comeback
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, hints at an impending comeback for the dollar. The post references a potential shift in the currency landscape, with the 'USD Wrecking Ball' hashtag signaling ...
UrbanKaoberg offers tailored news heatmaps by asset class, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, highlights that each asset class in UrbanKaoberg has its own news heatmap specifically tuned to that class. He points out that, while these heatmaps may not ...
Michael Kao: K-shaped economy worsens amid AI-driven disinflation and Iran war risks
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, examines the consequences of competing economic forces such as AI-driven productivity and Iran war-driven stagflation. Kao highlights how these dynamics worsen ...
PRA begins to weaken amid absence of news, Michael Kao writes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, writes about his 'Lead Zeppelin Mental Model,' noting that asymmetric short candidates can be supported by event catalysts that may be withdrawn unexpectedly. ...
Michael Kao: Market faces a divide between disinflationary growth and risks of stagflation
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, compares the current macroeconomic environment to a tightrope walk between two starkly different outcomes. He describes one possible path leading to a period ...
SF Federal Reserve's LA branch serves 720 institutions, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, participated in a macro roundtable at the Los Angeles branch of the San Francisco Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026. Kao noted that the LA branch is responsible ...
Michael Kao: Cash holdings observed at SF Federal Reserve Bank LA branch
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, participated as a panelist at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank's Los Angeles branch. He remarked on observing a significant amount of cash during his ...
Datadog significantly outperforms other SaaS stocks, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, observes that Datadog has delivered dramatic outperformance compared to a basket of other SaaS stocks, citing a multi-chart analysis generated on May 20, 2026. ...
Michael Kao: Q126 results released for ECC on May 19, 2026
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, updates on the release of Q126 results for ECC as of May 19, 2026. Kao mentions that further detailed updates are available in his private ...
CLO doomsayer myths dispelled by recent charts, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, discusses recent concerns about collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in a post dated 5/13/26. Kao shares charts from CIFC Asset Management, emphasizing the ...
Michael Kao: Pre-IPO hot potato trend fueling speculation and risk
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, cautions that rampant speculation is emerging in the market for secondary pre-IPO shares, especially through special purpose vehicles (SPVs) managed by third ...
Macroeconomic and jobs data are out, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, highlights the release of new macroeconomic data and the latest jobs numbers today. Kao directs his audience to resources for staying updated with economic ...
Michael Kao: MBI earnings release and special situation analysis on May 7, 2026
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, highlights that MBI is releasing its earnings on May 7, 2026 and identifies MBI as a special situation for analysis. Kao recommends using the MBI / AGO ...
Equities ANLZ SHORT referenced for PCT analysis, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, references the Equities/ANLZ/SHORT page for insights on PCT. The comment appears to highlight an error or unexpected result related to PCT on this analytics ...
Michael Kao: Historical yield curves compared amid rate volatility
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, compares recent and historical yield curves to address concerns over interest rate movements. Kao highlights differences between current and past yield curve ...
Credit investors face gap between sentiment and fundamentals, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, highlights analysis from Eagle Point stating that markets are currently pricing in disruption at a pace more rapid than historical trends would suggest. Kao ...
Michael Kao: ECC trades above March net asset value as CLO equity gains
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, highlights that ECC is now trading above its March 31 net asset value, reflecting strong performance among CLO equity investments. Kao shares that new ...
Medallia faced challenges from its 2021 leveraged buyout, Michael Kao notes
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, reflects on Medallia's acquisition and financial trajectory. Kao observes that the business had a low competitive moat and was bought and leveraged at its ...
Michael Kao: Comparison of current market period with 2000-2001 highlighted
Michael Kao, CIO at Akadia Capital, reflects on market history in recent commentary. He points to a discussion by PTJ around the 37:00 mark that compares the current period to the 2000-2001 ...
