Long-run neutral U.S. rate estimated at 4.3%, Greg Ip notes

Traders Union
All News
Market Voices
ACM model estimates neutral U.S. rate at 4.3%

Top Stories

Editors' Picks

Stocks

Crypto

Economics

Currencies

Commodities

Business & Wealth

Market Voices

Yesterday

Long-run neutral U.S. rate estimated at 4.3%, Greg Ip notes — ACM model estimates neutral U.S. rate at 4.3%

Greg Ip stated that the ACM term premium model estimates the long-run, or neutral, U.S. interest rate at 4.3%, which is higher than the current rate of 3.88% and the FOMC’s own long-run projection of 3.2%.

Ip added that this difference in rate estimates is a key, underappreciated reason why the Federal Reserve may likely have to raise interest rates eventually.

View post on X Loading...

The tweet was deleted by the author.

But we saved everything 🙂.

Greg Ip recently noted that core CPI readings are rising even as core PCE drops, contrary to earlier forecasts of convergence in inflation data this year (link). He also observed that price-sensitive investors, including hedge funds, have been driving significant swings in U.S. Treasury yields (link). These observations provide context to his analysis of shifting expectations for long-term interest rates.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

Did you like the article?

Editor's Picks for You

The end of Bitcoin’s growth era: Why prominent investors doubt its future

By Olena Litvinenko
14 hours ago

The end of Bitcoin’s growth era: Why prominent investors doubt its future

Editors' Picks

WeFi CEO: Banks are overstating the threat from stablecoins

By Eugene Komchuk
16 hours ago

WeFi CEO: Banks are overstating the threat from stablecoins

Editors' Picks

HSBC’s warning signs point to a bigger risk for global banks

By Dmytro Kharkov
18 hours ago

HSBC’s warning signs point to a bigger risk for global banks

Editors' Picks

All Editors' Top Picks

Latest Greg Ip News

Greg Ip: Interest rates can affect all areas of the economy according to Kevin Warsh

By Elena Nikulina
8 hours ago

Greg Ip: Interest rates can affect all areas of the economy according to Kevin Warsh

Market Voices

Greg Ip: Price-sensitive investors drive large moves in U.S. Treasury yields

By Elena Nikulina
23.10.2026

Greg Ip: Price-sensitive investors drive large moves in U.S. Treasury yields

Market Voices

Core CPI moves higher while core PCE drops, Greg Ip notes

By Igor Krasulya
15.10.2026

Core CPI moves higher while core PCE drops, Greg Ip notes

Market Voices

All Greg Ip News

Olena Litvinenko
14 hours ago

The end of Bitcoin’s growth era: Why prominent investors doubt its future

Eugene Komchuk
16 hours ago

WeFi CEO: Banks are overstating the threat from stablecoins

Dmytro Kharkov
18 hours ago

HSBC’s warning signs point to a bigger risk for global banks

Anastasiia Chabaniuk
Yesterday

Why do crypto companies want their own banks?

Mikhail Vnuchkov
Yesterday

Between record and bubble: How Anthropic is approaching its IPO

Mikhail Vnuchkov
15 min ago

Arini may be the Bear Stearns of the 2027 cycle, Michael Green writes

Igor Krasulya
1 hour ago

Generation Bukele to lead historic Bitcoin event in November, Stacy Herbert notes

Ksenia Gerey
1 hour ago

Potential for Nasdaq to reach 33,000 raised, Jason Pizzino notes

Hanna Syniavska
2 hours ago

Anthropic moves forward with IPO plans after AI agent setbacks, John Legere notes

Mikhail Vnuchkov
2 hours ago

Lance Lambert: Mortgage purchase applications hover near lowest levels in 30 years

Top News

Olga Shendetskaya
11 hours ago

Bank of Canada raises rates for first time in over three years

Bank of Canada raises rates for first time in over three years

Eugene Komchuk
12 hours ago

Google develops a Bitcoin custody service

Google develops a Bitcoin custody service

Andrey Mastykin
12 hours ago

Oil prices jump amid new threats to Saudi energy infrastructure

Oil prices jump amid new threats to Saudi energy infrastructure

Hanna Syniavska
14 hours ago

Nasdaq futures rise as SK Hynix earnings fuel chip rally

Nasdaq futures rise as SK Hynix earnings fuel chip rally

Ivan Andriyenko
16 hours ago

Robinhood shares drop 8% as crypto slump weighs on earnings

Robinhood shares drop 8% as crypto slump weighs on earnings

Top 5 companies for you

United States

Live News

Aleksandra Chaikina
Now

DTCC launches securities tokenization service with JPMorgan and Citi

Anton Kharitonov
Now

EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1125 ahead of Fed rate decision

Hanna Syniavska
Now

Turkey cancels Tera Yatirim license amid $100 billion market rout

Mykhailo Ihnatenko
Now

AMD stock rebounds as Meta tests Helios systems and Oracle expands EPYC use

Mykhailo Ihnatenko
Now

Ethereum price prediction: Can $2,300 support prevent another liquidation wave?

© IAFT Ltd., 2010-2026 All rights to the website are owned by IAFT Ltd.,
Registration number - HE 336186

Risk disclosure:

Information on the TradersUnion.com website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any motive or suggestion to visitors to invest money. Moreover, we hereby warn you that trading on the Forex and CFD markets is always a high risk. According to the statistics, 75-89% of customers lose the funds invested and only 11-25% of traders earn a profit. Trading in futures and options carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.

That is why you should only invest money that you are prepared — or can afford — to lose at such high risks. Tradersunion.com does not provide any financial services, including investment or financial advisory services. Also, the Traders Union is not a broker and does not get money for trading in the Forex or CFD markets. Our website only provides information on brokers and the markets and helps its users to select the best brokerage company based on detailed information and objective analysis of brokers.
Disclaimer:

Traders Union (TradersUnion.com) shall not be liable for the consequences of trading decisions made by the Client and for the possible loss of his capital resulting from the use of this website and information published on it.

Forex market, CFD and cryptocurrency trading involves high risks and is not suitable for everyone. Before investing money, you need to adequately assess the level of your expertise and be aware of the risks, particularly in the context of trading with leverage. The information on this website is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction, where such distribution or use would be in violation of the local law or regulation. Any payments by Traders Union (TradersUnion.com) to the users of our website shall be legally interpreted solely as an incentive on our part for the activity on the website in the form of a deduction of a part of the advertising income; they shall not be a subject of any claims of our users or our obligations, a subject of disputes, as well as cannot be considered in relation to the services provided to users by brokers, both in fact and in their completeness and volume. The administration of the website shall not be liable for the content of user comments and reviews about the companies and shall not verify whether the authors of the reviews are indeed real clients of a specific company. All reviews, both negative and positive are published on the website without verification of their reliability; only offensive reviews that call for violence or any kind of discrimination and also reviews published from one group of IP addresses are moderated and removed. The authors of the materials shall be fully liable for the accuracy, completeness and impartiality of any information in the articles and reviews, including in the context of their use or mention of any brand names or trademarks. All mentions of the names of companies and their brands in any materials on the website shall be made in the context of communication of socially important information to the people about their activities by independent journalists, who are the authors. All evaluations and indicators on the website express the subjective opinion of the authors of the reviews (articles) and shall not be viewed as accurate statements and be a subject of disputes and claims against Traders Union.
Disclosure of advertisers and revenues:

All the services on the Tradersunion.com website are free for you to use. Our team spends thousands of hours per annum researching brokers and gathering information about them to help investors all over the world to choose reliable companies and to avoid fraudsters.

Indeed, the curating, sourcing, and organization of this process requires substantial financial investment by Tradersunion.com, which the website earns in the form of advertising payments. There are two types of advertising services on the website — direct advertising or partner (broker) participation programs. However, no services purchased by our partners shall affect the recommendations on our website, or our opinions, or ratings. Our ratings are based on our objective rating criteria and methodology; and the results are always equally and fairly applied to each broker. The work of our content authors and research groups does not involve any interaction with our advertisers and they do not have access to data concerning the amount of advertising purchased. For over 10 years we consider our independence, absolute openness, and objectivity as our main priority. Please follow the links to each of our affiliated broker’s websites. This will help Tradersunion.com to continue to provide our services to you for free.