AMAT slides nearly 5% as selling pressure mounts on equipment orders and export worries

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Applied materials slides 4.83% today

Highlights

Applied Materials saw a decline in equipment orders from leading foundries and faces intensified export control scrutiny.
Despite sector pressures, the company sustained operating margins in the high teens to high twenties and continued capital returns via buybacks and dividends.
Shares remain volatile near $573.41, with strong medium- to long-term momentum and an 80% likelihood of rebounding toward $624.58 if resistance at $588.97 is surpassed.

Order weakness and regulatory focus weigh on sentiment despite strong margins

Applied Materials registered a decline in equipment orders from major foundries and faced increased attention to regulatory trade and export controls. The company has maintained operating margins in the 20–29% range among AI semiconductor peers and continued its strategy of returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Applied Materials remains focused on long-term growth opportunities tied to sustained chip equipment demand, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes the recent 4.83% drop in Applied Materials exposes growing vulnerabilities. He notes short-term technical weakness as the price fell below the 20-day moving average despite bullish longer-term trends. Kharitonov is concerned by declining foundry orders and tightening trade regulations, which may weaken institutional confidence. He stresses that macro risks are still underestimated given regulatory uncertainty. "Until order flows and regulatory clarity improve, I see persistent downside risks and limited conviction for new positions here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees recent selling in Applied Materials as a healthy pause in an ongoing uptrend. He highlights resilient operating margins and continued shareholder returns as signs of strong fundamentals. Karapetjanc believes the bullish technical structure remains intact, supported by medium- and long-term moving averages. He expects further growth as chip equipment demand stays robust. "With the price holding key supports and institutional narratives bullish, I am confident AMAT is poised for renewed momentum this quarter."

Short-term weakness persists as bullish momentum faces mixed technical signals

Applied Materials is trading below its 20-day moving average at $608.72, indicating pronounced near-term selling pressure. However, it remains above both the 50-day at $508.15 and 200-day at $349.23, which signals a persistently bullish trend in medium and long-term timeframes. Short-term resistance is marked by the session high at $588.97, while support is established at the session low of $569. Momentum indicators give a mixed reading: the MACD and ADX indicate upside strength, but the RSI stands neutral at 53.92 and the Stochastic RSI at 19.43 signals oversold conditions. Other gauges like the CCI and Awesome Oscillator remain neutral, and BBP shows buyers dominating intraday but flagging overbought conditions. The price is holding near its session lows amid intraday volatility of 3.51%, reflecting significant pressure after the open.

Earlier, analysts noted that Applied Materials exhibited robust bullish momentum, underpinned by structural growth drivers and strong technical signals. New macro and regulatory challenges have introduced increased volatility, so traders should monitor for confirmation of a rebound above short-term resistance at $588.97 to validate renewed buyer control.

Source of Data: AMAT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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