National Grid stock support test: Technical outlook

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National Grid slips 0.12% to GBX1,232

Highlights

National Grid increased its registered capital to 5,249,831,589 shares through a scrip dividend, expanding the equity float.
The share issue introduces mild dilution and reflects ongoing use of scrip dividends as a key payout strategy.
Bearish momentum dominates with NG/GBX trading below short-term averages; price is likely to remain in the GBX1,214–GBX1,250 range with downside risk prevailing.

Share dilution and equity float expansion as scrip dividend implemented

National Grid issued 50,862,899 new ordinary shares via its Scrip Dividend Scheme for the 2025/26 final dividend, raising its registered capital to 5,249,831,589 ordinary shares, with 5,026,792,463 shares holding voting rights, according to Investegate Co. This corporate action expands the available equity float, potentially exerting mild dilution on existing shareholders and introducing additional supply into the market. The capital adjustment reflects management’s ongoing use of scrip dividends as part of its payout strategy, which may influence per-share metrics and investor positioning.

Short-term downside momentum as price meets technical resistance

NG is positioned below the MA-20 at GBX1,237 and MA-50 at GBX1,239 on the hourly chart, while remaining above the MA-200 at GBX1,227 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at GBX1,233 and serves as immediate resistance, with the price trading just under this threshold. MACD and ADX both signal a Sell, confirming near-term negative momentum, while RSI at 45.83 indicates a mild Sell bias. CCI and Stochastic RSI remain neutral and do not highlight oversold or overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power shows persistent intraday seller dominance, flagging an oversold market, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not add directional confirmation.

High risk of decline amid narrow consolidation band

Over the next several trading days, NG is expected to remain in a range between GBX1,214 and GBX1,250, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a further downward move is considered very high, with only a low chance of an upward reversal. The baseline scenario sees the price consolidating sideways within this narrow band. A break above the immediate GBX1,233 resistance (Ichimoku Kijun) would open the way for a bullish scenario, while a fall below GBX1,214 support could trigger continued declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes National Grid remains fundamentally robust despite the recent addition of new shares via the Scrip Dividend Scheme. He sees the mild dilution as manageable and notes the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns. Technical signals and short-term sentiment suggest consolidation, but the macro outlook is stable. The analyst expects price action to stay within GBX1,214 to GBX1,250 barring a decisive breakout. "With the underlying fundamentals and macro environment steady, I see any further weakness as a potential opportunity for patient investors."

Earlier, analysts noted that National Grid’s issuance of new shares under its scrip dividend program was likely to exert ongoing pressure on the share price amid mixed technical signals. The current setup continues to emphasize downside risk, making a fall below the GBX1,214 support an important trigger for traders monitoring potential further declines.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.