Can Strategy stock break resistance as acquisition of 4,603 Bitcoin sparks rally?

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Strategy jumps 7.14% after Bitcoin buy

Highlights

Strategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, funded through new share issuance.
The company recommitted to its Bitcoin-focused treasury approach and stated it will avoid further sales before a possible bull market.
Shares of Strategy display short-term upward momentum but face overall weak technical signals, with an expected range of $122.3 to $138.15 over four days and a bias toward further downside.

Bitcoin accumulation accelerates as treasury strategy intensifies

Strategy has significantly increased its on-balance-sheet exposure to Bitcoin through the recent acquisition of 4,603 BTC valued at approximately $369.7 million, according to Finance Yahoo. This purchase, which follows a two-month pause, was financed by issuing new shares, providing immediate capital to expand its digital asset holdings. CEO Phong Le, as reported by Benzinga, reiterated the company's intention to avoid further Bitcoin sales ahead of any potential bull market, following a small disposal of 7,000 BTC to fund dividends and share buybacks. Together, these actions underline Strategy’s core commitment to a Bitcoin-centric treasury model and have sharpened market focus on the company’s leverage to crypto asset moves.

Bearish momentum persists as key support and resistance converge

On the technical front, MSTR is trading above both its MA-20 and MA-50 on the h1 timeframe but remains below its MA-200 on the daily chart. The immediate support level sits at the Ichimoku Kijun, currently at $127.39. Key momentum signals are weak, with both MACD and ADX indicating a Sell bias. RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power are tilted toward sellers or reflect oversold conditions, though Stochastic RSI highlights the potential for a near-term rebound as the price has moved sharply on strong daily volumes.

Further gains depend on resistance break amid downside risk

Looking over the next four days, MSTR is expected to fluctuate between $122.3 and $138.15. The short-term scenario favors further downside, with a 76% probability of upward moves and a 24% chance of decline, making a bearish reversal less likely. A sustained break above resistance could trigger additional gains, while a drop below the Ichimoku Kijun support at $127.39 would open the door for further selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views Strategy’s aggressive BTC accumulation as a double-edged move. He sees technical signals as weak, with the stock vulnerable below key resistance and momentum tilted toward sellers. Cautious sentiment prevails given dilution risk from new share issuance and mixed momentum. "Base case remains cautious — if $127.39 is lost, further downside is likely, so I’d avoid chasing the bounce here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Strategy’s short-term bullish signals were offset by persistent longer-term resistance and consolidation following its Bitcoin acquisition. The current analysis adds a renewed upward bias amid heightened volatility, highlighting $127.39 as a pivotal support level to watch for potential trend continuation or reversal.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.