Microsoft tests local support as Azure outlook takes focus
MSFT is trading around $493 on September 9 and remains under moderate pressure after another failed attempt to hold above $510. This time, the focus is shifting away from the already familiar topic of record AI CapEx toward whether Microsoft can maintain Azure’s acceleration in the first half of the new fiscal year.
524.70
534.70
The company itself expects Azure growth of around 45% in the next quarter and directly states that demand still exceeds available capacity. This is an important point, since the market is now assessing not demand itself, but the pace at which new capacity is being brought online and how quickly it can begin converting into revenue.
Backlog conversion becomes next growth test
The latest earnings continue to provide support. Revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter increased 18% to $90.0 billion, Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion, and commercial RPO reached $678 billion, up 84% y/y. Azure grew 43%, while FY2026 as a whole ended with revenue of $331.8 billion and diluted EPS of $17.95.
But what matters more now is not the headline figures themselves, but the fact that backlog remains enormous against the backdrop of limited infrastructure capacity. If the company can accelerate the conversion of this backlog into actual sales without further deterioration in margins, that would provide the stock with a stronger fundamental argument than another expansion of CapEx.
Analyst targets still imply meaningful upside
Analysts remain constructive for now, but the range of estimates shows that execution requirements remain high. Bank of America and KeyBanc maintain targets around $600, Stifel raised its target to $530, while the average 12-month estimate is around $573.
The main logic behind the bullish case is that Azure, Copilot, and enterprise AI can grow faster than the capital burden. At the same time, recent Jefferies estimates for the broader AI market also support the view that major hyperscalers still have sufficient backlog to justify the scale of investment.
$490 remains key level for current structure
On the hourly chart, MSFT is once again testing the important $493–490 support area after declining from $515–510. The price is trading near the longer-term moving average, so this zone is becoming key to preserving the current structure. A loss of $490 would increase the risk of a move toward $485–480 and then $475.
On the upside, the nearest resistance is around $498–500, while the more serious barrier remains at $505–510. As long as the stock holds above $490, the picture looks more neutral, but for a sustainable upward move to return, as noted in Microsoft faces valuation pressure as AI investment cycle deepens, MSFT will need to consolidate above $500 and confirm that Azure’s acceleration is indeed continuing without a noticeable deterioration in the economics of growth.
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