Costco stock weekly forecast: defensive tone holds as RSI approaches oversold

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Costco slips 0.20% over the week

Highlights

Costco stock trades at $894.68 and holds a bearish structure below key short and long-term moving averages.
The trend remains flat within a narrow range, with recent volatility measured at 2.02%.
The expected range for the week ahead is $886.69 to $903.66, with a 77% probability of downside as core indicators remain negative.

Earnings anticipation and dividend speculation drive sentiment amid recent pullback

Costco is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings after the U.S. market close on September 24, with FactSet consensus pointing to revenue of about $94.86 billion and earnings per share of $6.53, per Yahoo Finance. Investors are also watching for any special dividend news as the company maintains a significant cash balance, though Evercore ISI noted a special dividend is not anticipated this week. The stock remains 18% below its peak as of September 20, reflecting changing market sentiment despite steady fundamentals.

MACD sell bias maintains defensive tone as volatility stays subdued this week

The daily chart reflects a flat trend with a contained move within a narrow range, and volatility over the past week was 2.02%. MACD remains negative and signals sell, while RSI at 38.49 is approaching oversold, reinforcing the overall defensive tone even as HMA hints at potential short-term support. The nearest support is at $885.5 and resistance stands at $903.36, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $932.16 capping the upside for now.

Consolidation expected unless breakout triggers move beyond support or resistance

In the week ahead, the expected range is $886.69 to $903.66. The probability of a decrease is 77%, while the chance of an increase is 23%. The base case sees consolidation between $885.5 and $903.36. A sustained move above $903.36 would open the door for a recovery toward higher resistance levels, while a break below $885.5 could trigger further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes that the defensive setup in shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation near $895 offers a constructive environment for patient investors this week. He sees the upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report and potential dividend news as supportive catalysts, with fundamentals remaining robust despite an 18% pullback from the peak. While daily technicals still lean defensive — with MACD negative and RSI at 38.49 near oversold — Karapetjanc highlights that the base case is for consolidation between the $885.5 support and $903.36 resistance, with volatility contained at 2.02%. A sustained move above $903.36 could quickly unlock a recovery toward higher resistance, especially if positive earnings momentum returns. "With oversold signals building and key news on tap, I expect Costco shares to find support soon — setting the stage for upside opportunities if broader sentiment turns," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that investor attention was centered on Costco’s earnings updates and the potential for special dividend announcements amid a generally defensive market backdrop. The current setup adds further caution, with technical indicators suggesting traders should closely monitor the $885.5 support level for signs of either stabilization or a potential downside break.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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