Microsoft tests the top of its range as AI monetization gathers pace
MSFT is trading around $510 on September 28 and, after several weeks of consolidation in a range of roughly $480–515, is once again trying to establish itself in its upper part. On the 4-hour chart, the structure remains predominantly bullish: the price is holding above the short- and medium-term moving averages, while the longer-term averages continue to turn upward.

Copilot shifts toward usage-based revenue
One of the main factors behind the revaluation of Microsoft is the changing AI monetization model itself, where the company is gradually moving beyond the conventional sale of Microsoft 365 Copilot licenses and expanding the use of features with usage-based pricing.
New Copilot capabilities, including autonomous agent scenarios, imply not only an increase in the number of paid users but also higher revenue from existing corporate customers, which is becoming especially important after Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 30 million paid seats and the pace of new subscriber additions accelerated noticeably.
Azure growth meets capacity constraints
Azure remains the main "generator" of financial results, as its revenue grew by 43% in the latest quarter, Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion, and for the current quarter the company is guiding for approximately 44–45% Azure growth in constant currency.
The main constraint now is not so much on the demand side as on the infrastructure side: Microsoft continues to rapidly expand data centers and purchase AI equipment because available capacity is still insufficient.
The downside of this growth lies in extremely high capital expenditures, which is why investors are paying increasingly close attention to how quickly new AI services can offset the cost of further infrastructure expansion.
$520 remains the key breakout level
MSFT price is still in a consolidation phase but continues to trade confidently above support around the $490–480 levels, which indicates potential for a breakout above resistance around $520 and growth toward $540–550; a loss of support, as noted in Microsoft approaches $520 as AI monetization supports the rebound, would lead to a decline toward $460–440, where bulls may become more active.