Tesla stock approaches key $350 support ahead of Q3 deliveries

Tesla stock approaches key $350 support ahead of Q3 deliveries
Tesla faces a crucial test near $350

​Tesla is heading into the end of September under pressure after failing to hold above $367.50. Alongside the weakening short-term technical setup, investor attention is shifting toward the company’s quarterly delivery figures.

TSLA price prediction
24H -0.18%
$403.23
48H -0.84%
$400.57
7D -2.17%
$395.2
1M 6.84%
$431.57
3M -0.07%
$403.68
6M -13.02%
$351.37
12M -19.24%
$326.22
Current price: $403.95 4.09 1.02%
Closed 11/02
Daily range 401.33 Arrow from to Icon 414.17
Weekly range 393.97 Arrow from to Icon 414.17
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Tesla has published its own aggregated sell-side consensus for third-quarter deliveries. The average estimate stands at 461,974 vehicles, while the median is 463,406, including roughly 450,712 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. By comparison, the company delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter. Tesla also stresses that these figures represent analyst consensus rather than the company’s own forecast.

The estimates point to a moderate decline in deliveries from the previous quarter, making the actual Q3 figures an important near-term catalyst for the stock. Meanwhile, consensus expectations for energy storage deployments stand at around 15.9 GWh, up from 13.5 GWh in the second quarter.

Tesla needs reversal confirmation above $350

The bearish scenario outlined earlier continues to unfold. The stock failed to hold above $367.50 and has moved close to the previously identified $350 target.

For today’s trading session, the key support area is $350–347.50, where horizontal support aligns with the 50-day SMA.

If today’s daily candle forms a doji on elevated trading volume and the price also closes firmly above $350, the probability of a short-term rebound would increase materially.

Once confirmed, this setup would become the base-case scenario, with $367.50 acting as the nearest upside target.

Until that confirmation appears, it would be premature to assume the correction is over. If TSLA breaks below $347.50 and then establishes itself under that level, selling pressure could intensify, with the next target at $342.11, where the July 23 price gap is located.

GDP and labor data could drive a volatile week-end

The macro backdrop could make the end of the week particularly volatile. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.62% on September 29, its highest level since June 2002, before easing to around 5.56% on September 30 while remaining exceptionally elevated.

U.S. macroeconomic releases could add another layer of volatility. The third estimate of second-quarter U.S. GDP is scheduled for September 30, after which market attention will turn toward fresh labor market data. The combination of elevated yields, GDP figures and employment indicators increases the risk of sharp moves in TSLA through the end of the week.

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