Palantir stock tests $188 as bond yields threaten bullish setup
Palantir maintains its critical tech zone in spite of the significant weakening of the macro environment of tech stocks. The market is currently trying to find out if there is enough demand to keep the bull case intact.
198.51
201.68
Pressure has mounted on one of the most important projects of Palantir related to the government. More than 44,000 individuals have lodged objections against the usage of their personal health information in the Federated Data Platform of NHS England, which uses Palantir’s platform. The total value of the contract is estimated to be around £330 million, and the roll out date is expected to be February 2027. According to NHS England, the data will continue to be under the control of the NHS and any objections will be treated in accordance with the law.
Palantir needs to defend $188 to preserve the bullish setup
PLTR shares continue to hold the key support area around $188 identified in the previous analysis. The stock has so far failed to establish a sustained move below this level, keeping the possibility of further recovery intact.
As long as $188 holds, the base-case scenario for the coming days remains a continuation of the move toward $195.
The main threat to this setup comes from elevated U.S. Treasury yields. If PLTR breaks below $188 and spends at least one full trading session under that level, the current bullish structure would weaken materially and the risk of a correction toward $180 would rise significantly.
Extra caution may also be warranted on Friday, October 2. The BLS is due to publish the September Employment Situation report, and the market’s reaction to employment and wage data could trigger sharp moves in PLTR.
Oil-driven inflation complicates the Phillips curve signal
The bond market remains one of the main external risks for PLTR. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to around 5.68% on October 1, its highest level since 2002. Yields at these levels raise the discount rate applied to future cash flows and tend to weigh especially heavily on highly valued growth stocks.
Friday’s labor-market report is particularly important through a mechanism broadly consistent with the Phillips curve framework: softer employment conditions and slower wage growth would typically reduce domestic inflation pressure and could lessen the need for tighter Federal Reserve policy. The current backdrop is more complicated, however, because part of the inflation pressure is coming not from an overheated labor market but from higher oil and energy prices. That kind of supply-side shock can keep inflation elevated even as employment gradually cools, making the Fed’s task more difficult and keeping upward pressure on long-term yields.
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