Microsoft tests $535 as Copilot monetization and market rebound support momentum
MSFT is trading around $533 on October 6 after a sharp jump higher and is once again testing the $533–535 area, which acts as the nearest technical resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the structure has improved noticeably: the price is holding above all major moving averages, while the previous $515–520 zone is now turning into the first support area.

Copilot gets new monetization boost
⠀Microsoft’s corporate backdrop remains strong due to the expansion of Copilot and new AI products. The company introduced an updated Copilot with Home, Code and Autopilot, with Autopilot designed to work autonomously inside the corporate environment, while the new monetization model combines per-user licenses with usage-based billing for agent scenarios.Starting December 1, Microsoft also plans to enable usage-based billing by default for new Microsoft 365 Copilot Business licenses, gradually shifting part of AI usage toward a direct consumption model and potentially increasing Copilot’s contribution to revenue.⠀Another positive signal for the market is the continued development of Azure and corporate AI infrastructure. Microsoft continues to expand Foundry, Copilot and related agent tools, while September updates show that the company is increasingly connecting Azure, Fabric and Microsoft 365 into a single AI platform.Bond market remains main valuation constraint
⠀The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, after rising to 5.287%, its highest level since 2002, pulled back by around 2.5 basis points, while the stock market continued to recover. Nasdaq closed at a record high in the previous session, S&P 500 moved close to a new high, while futures on October 6 pointed to further gains amid demand for large technology and AI stocks.For MSFT, this combination remains favorable: strong AI demand supports the valuation multiple, while even a modest decline in yields reduces pressure from the discounting of future cash flows.⠀At the same time, further upside increasingly depends on confirmation from earnings. After recovering toward $533–535, the market is once again effectively valuing Microsoft as one of the main beneficiaries of the AI cycle, so upcoming reports, as noted in Microsoft returns toward $530 on strong AI demand and Nasdaq recovery, need to confirm that strong demand for Azure, Copilot and infrastructure is actually translating into faster revenue and operating profit growth.The break above resistance around $510 confirms that bulls remain in control, but they still face a battle with strong resistance around $550, where bears may try to regain control.