MSTR slides as USD cash reserves drop 42% in four weeks

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Strategy drops 5.82% to $154.98 today

Highlights

Strategy reported a third-quarter 2026 digital asset fair-value gain of $20.91 billion, mainly from its 848,000 BTC holding.
The company executed $176.3 million in STRC buybacks and saw USD cash reserves fall 42% to $833.4 million over four weeks.
Shares of Strategy trade below key moving averages with mixed momentum signals, and are expected to consolidate in a $147.48 to $164.76 range over the next two to three days.

Earnings surge and liquidity tighten amid aggressive buybacks

Strategy posted a third-quarter 2026 digital asset fair-value gain of roughly $20.91 billion, primarily attributable to its holding of 848,000 BTC, according to Spotedcrypto. This substantial mark-to-market increase boosted the company’s reported earnings for the period. During the week of September 21 to 27, 2026, Strategy also conducted $176.3 million in STRC buybacks, which reduced the outstanding float and indicated management’s tactical response to market pressures. In addition, USD cash reserves fell by 42% to $833.4 million over the preceding four weeks, tightening short-term liquidity, while the company filed a proxy to move several preferred instruments to daily-dividend accrual, with a shareholder vote set for October 28, 2026. These actions occurred as price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Buy momentum diverges as resistance and overbought signals emerge

On the working timeframe, MSTR/USD trades below the MA-20 at $162.4 and the MA-50 at $158.9, reflecting short- and medium-term downside momentum, but remains above the MA-200 at $135.99, providing longer-term structural support. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $162.99 and now acts as immediate resistance. Among momentum indicators, MACD signals strong buy momentum and ADX is in buy territory, while RSI at 57.87 signals a buy bias. Stoch RSI and CCI are both neutral, showing ongoing trader indecision, and Bull/Bear Power is in overbought territory, pointing to buyer dominance intraday. The price finished near the session low amid high volatility, with momentum and oscillator signals diverging as bullish momentum clashes with price weakness and overbought conditions.

Sideways bias seen as downside risks outweigh breakout potential

For the next 2–3 trading days, MSTR/USD is expected to consolidate within a range of $147.48 to $164.76, with the probability of an upward move at 39% and a downside move at 61%. The baseline scenario is for sideways consolidation inside this volatility band. A break above immediate resistance could trigger a bullish move, while a fall below key support around $147.48 would open the way for further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that MSTR is under clear near-term technical pressure, with price action stalled below key moving averages and volatility elevated. Fundamentals reveal significant cryptocurrency-driven gains but also highlight shrinking liquidity and ongoing capital structure changes, increasing risk. He sees sentiment mixed — recent buybacks and profit upside are offset by aggressive cash burn and muted price response. "Given these conflicting signals and dominant downside momentum, I remain defensive and expect further range trading unless $164.76 resistance breaks decisively."

Previously it was reported that Strategy maintained a bullish capital allocation approach by balancing significant bitcoin accumulation with share buybacks. The latest developments add a new dimension, with the company's recent digital asset fair-value gain and tactical buybacks accompanied by tightening cash reserves and a shift in preferred dividend accruals, making the outcome of the upcoming shareholder vote a key catalyst for near-term price direction.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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