Nvidia stock forecast: Can $217 support hold amid rising macro pressure?
Nvidia is back under pressure as hotter inflation overwhelms another strong signal from the AI supply chain. The next test is whether $217 can hold before the sell-off extends toward $213.
September U.S. CPI was the main trigger behind Nvidia’s latest decline. Inflation accelerated to 3.7% year over year, above expectations of 3.6%, while the monthly increase came in at 0.6%. The hotter reading revived concerns over additional rate hikes and set off another round of selling across richly valued AI and semiconductor stocks.
The underlying AI demand story, however, remains strong. On October 15, TSMC reported record quarterly profit, up 69% year over year to $23.6 billion and ahead of expectations. The key manufacturing partner for Nvidia chips also pointed to continued strength in demand for AI-related capacity.
Yet even TSMC’s strong results failed to reverse sentiment across the sector. That is an important signal as earnings season gets underway: if the macro backdrop keeps deteriorating, investors may increasingly use strong reports as opportunities to take profits rather than add exposure.
$217 becomes critical after CPI reshapes Nvidia’s setup
The scenario from the previous analysis played out in full. Nvidia tested the 50-day SMA before rebounding toward the projected target near $228.
The CPI release has since changed the short-term structure considerably. Support at $217 is now the key level to watch. A break and sustained move below it would bring $213 into focus, while heavier selling could eventually expose the $207 area.
The bearish setup would be invalidated if Nvidia holds $217 and then recovers above $223. That would allow buyers to regain some control and give the stock another opportunity to test $228.
Strong earnings may no longer be enough
TSMC’s results suggest that demand for AI infrastructure has not disappeared. The pressure is coming from somewhere else: investors are becoming much less willing to pay the same premium for growth that lies further in the future.
If that shift continues, this earnings season could become increasingly defined by sell-the-news reactions and profit-taking even after strong reports. Given Nvidia’s elevated valuation, weak guidance, or simply the absence of another upside surprise, could produce an outsized move in the stock.
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