Morgan Stanley stock weekly forecast: Strong earnings fail to spark rebound as oversold setup persists

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Morgan Stanley falls 5.73% this week

Highlights

Shares of Morgan Stanley fell 5.73% over the past week to $178.65, well below key moving averages.
The stock shows a persistent downtrend with strong bearish momentum and indicators in oversold territory.
Immediate support is at $176.44 with projected trading between $163.08 to $186.19 over the next five days and resistance at $193.16.

Earnings beat boosts wealth management but investment banking lags expectations

Morgan Stanley reported strong third-quarter 2026 financial results, beating Wall Street expectations with revenue of $20.34 billion and GAAP earnings per share of $3.03, according to CNBC. The company's wealth management division added $232 billion in new assets, much of it related to robust IPO activity. Although investment banking revenue edged 2% higher to $2.16 billion, it missed analyst forecasts by about $110 million. Morgan Stanley also completed around $1.5 billion in share repurchases and declared a quarterly dividend of $1.15 per share.

Oversold momentum dominates as technical signals reinforce downside risks

The daily chart shows a sustained move lower with a firm trend, underlined by RSI at 25.47 and CCI at -156.37, both deep in oversold territory. MACD momentum remains negative, adding confirmation to the downside, while the past week's volatility has been elevated at 9.56%. Immediate support stands at $176.44, with resistance at $193.16 and a secondary barrier at the Ichimoku Kijun near $197.04. The overall setup signals persistent selling pressure, with oversold conditions offering scant indication of a near-term bounce.

Further losses likely with downside bias unless key resistance breaks

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $163.08 to $186.19. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of further declines and a very low probability of an increase. The base case is for the stock to remain pressured below $193.16, with any rebound struggling to clear this resistance. A sustained break above $193.16 could open the door to a recovery attempt, while a drop below $176.44 would expose further downside toward the lower end of the projected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued downside risk for Morgan Stanley shares after a nearly 6% drop last week. Despite strong financial results and robust asset inflows into the wealth management division, selling has driven the stock into deeply oversold territory, as shown by daily RSI at 25.47 and CCI at -156.37. The daily chart signals persistent negative momentum, confirmed by a negative MACD and elevated volatility at 9.56%. Immediate support is at $176.44, while resistance remains distant at $193.16 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $197.04. For the week ahead, he believes the stock will struggle to rebound meaningfully and could test the lower end of the expected range at $163.08. "As long as Morgan Stanley shares remain capped below $193.16, I do not trust any upside — risk stays to the downside in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that Morgan Stanley shares faced persistent downside risk amid technical weakness despite solid earnings performance. The latest price action reinforces this bearish outlook, with traders advised to monitor $176.44 as a critical support level that could determine the stock’s near-term direction.

Source of Data: MS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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