Morgan Stanley backs Quantinuum as top quantum computing stock pick

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Morgan Stanley backs Quantinuum

Highlights

Morgan Stanley upgraded Quantinuum as its top quantum computing pick, highlighting superior technology and execution despite the lowest 2030 revenue multiple in its peer group.
Morgan Stanley projects Quantinuum's revenue to grow from about $270 million in 2028 to $2 billion by 2030, emphasizing the company's favorable commercialization trajectory.
The bank forecasts the quantum computing market could expand from $10 billion in 2030 to over $100 billion by 2040, contingent on achieving the next phase of hardware development.

Upgrade reflects technology and execution view

According to CNBC, Morgan Stanley said in a Thursday note that it rates Quantinuum as the strongest pure-play name in the quantum computing group after assessing companies across technical progress, execution, manufacturability and broader signs of advancement.

The bank placed greater emphasis on technology, saying that area showed the clearest differences among competitors. Analyst Joseph Moore wrote that Quantinuum stands out on both technology and execution, while the market assigns it the lowest multiple on Morgan Stanley's 2030 revenue estimates within the peer group.

Moore also cautioned that comparing companies remains difficult because hardware approaches differ widely and current revenue is still too limited to clearly separate the field. He said no company has yet built a fault-tolerant machine, making long-term roadmaps more important than near-term sales in judging progress toward commercialization.

2030 revenue outlook and sector milestones

Morgan Stanley expects the Colorado-based company's revenue to rise to $2 billion in 2030 from about $270 million in 2028, underscoring the bank's view that Quantinuum is positioned to benefit if the industry reaches its next development phase.

The bank sees 2027 as a critical year for the sector, with Quantinuum's next-generation Sol system described as the next major hardware milestone. Moore said company roadmaps broadly converge on early fault-tolerant systems in 2029 and 2030, which leaves investors focused on which businesses are progressing most credibly toward that window.

For the wider industry, Morgan Stanley estimates the quantum computing market could expand from roughly $10 billion in 2030 to more than $100 billion by 2040 if commercial adoption broadens. That outlook points to a sector still defined by technical risk, but one that could become materially larger if developers clear the next hardware hurdles.

In our earlier article on the UK’s push to commercialise nuclear fusion, we outlined how the UK Atomic Energy Authority sees an intensifying race with China as fusion moves from lab research toward industrial planning. We highlighted recent progress such as advances in superconducting magnets and improved performance in the MAST Upgrade machine, alongside the UK’s goal of building a prototype fusion power plant by 2040 amid energy-security and supply-chain considerations.

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