Barrick Gold stock forecast: Consolidation expected amid weak momentum and persistent selling

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Barrick Gold down 0.81% at C$53.66

Highlights

Barrick Gold net earnings rose 50% year over year in the second quarter due to higher gold and copper prices and increased project spending.
The company maintains its stable dividend policy, approved a $3 billion share buyback program for 2026, and plans to IPO select North American gold assets.
Shares of Barrick Gold in CAD remain below key moving averages with technical signals showing strong selling pressure, trading between C$51.76 to C$55.56 and further downside likely.

Earnings surge and buyback plans fail to lift stock sentiment

Barrick Gold posted a 50% year-over-year jump in second quarter net earnings, driven by higher gold and copper prices as well as increased project spending. This confirmed operational strength, but the improvement has not reversed recent price softness. The company also upholds its stable dividend policy and, in May 2026, approved a new $3 billion buyback program, while announcing plans to IPO certain North American gold assets. In the third quarter, Cantor Fitzgerald Investment Advisors acquired 57,900 shares, adding to institutional ownership according to MarketBeat.

Negative momentum as price remains under major resistance levels

On the H1 chart, ABX is positioned below the MA-20 at C$55.87 and MA-50 at C$56.41, and trades well below the MA-200 at C$58.97. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily timeframe is set at C$55.69, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators remain negative: both MACD and ADX continue to indicate a sell bias. RSI is at 23.68 and Stochastic RSI remains firmly oversold, with CCI also in sell territory. Bull/Bear Power points to persistent selling in intraday action, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, highlighting an environment dominated by sellers and lacking compelling reversal signals.

Downside risk prevails as bullish reversal stays unlikely

Over the coming sessions, ABX is projected to trade within a volatility band of C$51.76 to C$55.56. The probability of an upside move remains very low, with downside continuation much more likely; a bullish reversal is considered unlikely. A base scenario would see the stock consolidating between these support and resistance levels. Should the price break above the Ichimoku Kijun and C$55.56, a short-term rebound could follow. Conversely, a breakdown below C$51.76 may accelerate further losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees Barrick Gold’s fundamentals as resilient despite prevailing bearish sentiment. He notes that stronger net earnings and a committed buyback signal robust management but have yet to shift short-term trends. The stock remains under pressure technically, with sellers dominating and no sign of an immediate reversal. Karapetjanc believes market caution may give way if operational tailwinds persist and resistance at C$55.56 is cleared. "With solid fundamentals and ongoing institutional attention, I view the current situation as a consolidation phase offering strategic opportunities for prepared investors."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite improved earnings and a new buyback program Barrick Gold shares remained under significant bearish pressure with sellers maintaining control. This latest analysis reaffirms the persistent downside bias and highlights C$51.76 as a crucial support level to monitor for signs of further weakness.

Source of Data: ABX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.