Strategy stock price prediction: Volatility expected with risk tilted to the downside

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Strategy drops 5.24% to $138.4 today

Highlights

Strategy Inc. repurchased $204.9 million of STRC preferred stock, reducing outstanding preferred equity and modifying its capital structure.
The company did not transact in Bitcoin during the week ended October 25, 2026, keeping its digital asset exposure unchanged.
STRC stock trades below key moving averages with mixed technical signals, and the expected price range is $128.65 to $150.08 with high downside probability.

Preferred stock repurchase shifts capital mix without energizing sentiment

Strategy Inc. repurchased $204.9 million of its STRC preferred stock over the week ended October 25, 2026, according to TradingView, a move that reduces outstanding preferred equity and may influence perceptions of the company's capital structure and future balance sheet flexibility. This corporate action shifts the capital mix but does not introduce immediate operational changes or direct cash returns to ordinary shareholders. Additionally, the company reported no Bitcoin purchases or sales for the same period, leaving its digital asset exposure unchanged and providing little near-term support to market sentiment.

Bearish signals dominate as momentum weakens below technical ceilings

MSTR/USD is trading below its MA-20 and MA-50, but above the MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $149.03 currently acting as overhead resistance. MACD highlights strong buy momentum, while ADX is neutral, suggesting the recent move lacks trend strength. Both RSI and CCI point to a sell bias, confirming weakening momentum, and Stochastic RSI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power is deep in oversold territory, underlining short-term seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not amplify the prevailing trend.

Volatility expected as downside risk intensifies within stated band

In the near term, price action is expected to remain volatile within a typical range of $128.65 to $150.08, with the probability of further downside assessed as very high. The base scenario keeps MSTR moving between key support and resistance. If resistance at $149.03 is broken, the price could reclaim the upper end of the projected band. However, a slip below $135.25 would likely trigger additional downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Strategy Inc.'s recent preferred stock repurchase as a prudent capital move, supporting long-term financial health. He believes the absence of new Bitcoin transactions keeps short-term sentiment neutral, while technicals point to continued seller pressure. Despite near-term volatility and downward bias, the analyst remains confident that strong fundamentals and careful balance sheet management set the stage for future recovery. "If support at $135.25 holds, I expect market confidence to improve as the company signals disciplined capital allocation and positions itself for upside when broader sentiment shifts."

Previously it was reported that Strategy’s expanded buyback authorization and clarified stablecoin regulations supported a constructive outlook despite mixed technical signals. The current review signals a shift to a more defensive scenario, with sellers in control and heightened downside risk if the $135.25 support fails to hold.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.