Shell stock forecast: Flat trend holds above GBX3,956 as mixed momentum complicates outlook

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Shell up 0.73% today at GBX3,956

Highlights

Shell reported a net profit of $10.81 billion for the third quarter of 2026, driven by favorable market conditions.
The company announced a $5 billion share buyback programme, reducing share count and returning capital to investors.
Shares of Shell trade in a very high probability uptrend, with expected range GBX3,890 to GBX4,021 and mixed momentum signals indicating overbought conditions but ongoing bullish structure.

Buyback launch and strong profit boost investor confidence

Shell reported a net profit of $10.81 billion for the third quarter of 2026, highlighting robust operational earnings driven by favorable market conditions. In addition, the company announced the launch of a $5 billion share buyback programme, a direct move to reduce share count and return capital to investors, according to Investing.com. These actions, supported by stronger refining margins and higher liquefied natural gas prices, offer both near-term liquidity to shareholders and underline the firm's capacity to generate significant cashflow.

Mixed momentum signals as price tests technical resistance

SHEL holds above the MA-20 at GBX3,951 and the MA-50 at GBX3,955 on the hourly chart, while the MA-200 at GBX3,264 on the daily timeframe provides significant long-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart now marks immediate resistance at GBX3,971. On the momentum front, the hourly RSI reveals mild buying bias and CCI is neutral, but Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power both show overbought readings with buyer dominance. However, the MACD signals strong sell momentum and ADX remains neutral, indicating a complex picture of mixed trend and oscillator signals.

Bullish continuation likely if price surpasses resistance

Over the coming sessions, the expected trading range for SHEL spans from GBX3,890 to GBX4,021, capturing typical volatility for the current environment. The likelihood of an upward breakout is considered very high, with the downside scenario described as much less probable. If price holds within this band, a move above resistance at GBX3,971 would mark a bullish continuation, while a close below GBX3,890 support would open the way to a short-term pullback.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, finds Shell’s latest results impressive on both fundamental and macro grounds. He notes strong earnings and a sizable buyback are reinforcing investor confidence and cashflow stability. The analyst sees technicals staying constructive despite mixed momentum signals. Karapetjanc believes price action above key moving averages and the high probability of an upward breakout support a bullish tactical outlook. "Robust profit performance and capital return make Shell an attractive play for continued upside as long as the GBX3,890 support holds."

Previously it was reported that Shell's earnings surged due to rising energy prices and refining margins, with strong buyback activity despite operational disruptions. With current technical indicators showing a high likelihood of an upside breakout, traders should closely monitor price action near the GBX3,971 resistance for potential confirmation of continued bullish momentum.

Source of Data: SHEL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.