Eni sees gas prices staying below 2022 crisis peaks as Middle East war lifts market
Natural gas prices are rising again as supply risks in the Middle East and low storage levels in Europe tighten market conditions. Even so, Eni says the current rally is unlikely to match the extremes seen during Europe's 2022 energy crisis.
Highlights
- Benchmark Dutch TTF gas price hit 100 euros per MWh for first time since December 2022, still well below 2022's 300 euros peak.
- Eni's Stefano Pujatti states renewed price surge is global due to LNG cargo flexibility, but sustained 2022-level pricing remains unlikely.
- Pujatti notes Europe's expanded regasification capacity should constrain further Dutch TTF gains, making a repeat of the 2022 crisis improbable despite continued volatility.
Trading view on the latest gas price surge
As reported by Reuters, Stefano Pujatti, Eni's director for global portfolio and trading, says it is difficult for gas prices to return to the levels seen in 2022 despite the latest jump linked to the war involving Iran.The benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract touches 100 euros per megawatt hour on Wednesday for the first time since December 2022. That is still far below the heights of the 2022 energy crisis, when the same contract climbs above 300 euros per MWh after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Pujatti says the current shock affects the global gas market rather than Europe alone, because liquefied natural gas cargoes can be redirected around the world. He also says markets expect the situation in the Middle East to stabilise eventually.
Why Europe may avoid another 2022 spike
Eni also points to structural changes in Europe's gas system since the last crisis. Pujatti says the region's regasification capacity has increased significantly in recent years, a factor that should help limit further price gains at the Dutch TTF hub.That suggests the current rally is being driven by supply concerns and storage pressure, but within a market that now has more flexibility than it did in 2022. For energy buyers and traders, the company's assessment implies continued volatility, while making a repeat of the earlier crisis peak less likely.
In our earlier article on the WTO’s warning about lasting trade disruption from the Middle East war, we noted that repeated conflicts are forcing companies to redesign supply chains and shipping routes to reduce exposure to future shocks. The WTO expected a sharp contraction in the region’s trade flows and argued that even if tensions ease, diversification and costlier alternative routes could persist as a new baseline for global commerce.
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