Nvidia stock price forecast: $204.13 support in focus as NVDA falls 1.5%

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Nvidia slides 1.5% today to $214.6

Highlights

The US Department of Justice is investigating Nvidia's planned $12.93 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, raising regulatory concerns.
This probe is part of a wider antitrust investigation into Nvidia's business practices, increasing the likelihood of deal delays or changes.
Nvidia stock trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with clear downside signals and a projected range of $209.93 to $219.27 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Regulatory probe heightens deal uncertainty and clouds growth outlook

Nvidia is facing elevated regulatory scrutiny as the U.S. Department of Justice has begun probing its planned $12.93 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, according to Reuters. This review forms part of a broader, ongoing antitrust investigation into Nvidia's business practices, raising the possibility of significant deal delays or restructuring requirements. As regulatory risk intensifies, market participants are reassessing short-term prospects for both the acquisition and the company’s future growth initiatives.

Downside momentum persists as key resistance and mixed signals shape trend

On the h4 chart, NVDA is trading below the MA-20 at $216.21 and MA-50 at $224.57, while maintaining support above the MA-200 at $204.13. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $219.52 for the current session. MACD and ADX on the h4 indicate persistent downside momentum, both reflecting sell strength. RSI stands at 42.52, showing a tilt to the downside without indicating deeply oversold conditions, while Stoch RSI and CCI read as neutral. Bull/Bear Power highlights some buying activity, but buyers do not dominate, and the Awesome Oscillator is presently neutral. The mix of these signals illustrates a market with continuing downward forces but some short-term indecision among oscillators.

Low rebound odds as sellers cap gains within volatility range

Over the next 2–3 trading days, NVDA is expected to move within a volatility band of $209.93 to $219.27. The likelihood of an upward move is very low, with sellers more likely to control price action and limit rebound attempts. A close above $219.52 could trigger short-term buying, while sustained trading below $209.93 may prompt further declines and intensify downward momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia facing a volatile environment as regulatory scrutiny intensifies. He believes market sentiment is pressured by the DOJ’s probe, leading to increased uncertainty around the $12.93 billion Hugging Face acquisition. Downside technical momentum still dominates, but the longer-term growth story remains compelling. Karapetjanc remains optimistic that regulatory headwinds are temporary. "If Nvidia holds support above $209.93, I see potential for renewed interest as clarity returns to the regulatory picture."

Earlier, analysts noted that elevated AI investment and uncertainty regarding returns had put ongoing pressure on Nvidia's stock. The intensifying regulatory scrutiny surrounding Nvidia’s planned Hugging Face acquisition adds a new layer of risk for the company, with current technical signals indicating that sustained trading below $209.93 could accelerate further downside in the days ahead.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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