Nvidia stock drops as seller pressure builds below the 200-day moving average

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Nvidia slides 2.2% to $202.14 today

Highlights

Nvidia instructed data center and cloud partners to allocate at least 51% of future sales to non-Chinese customers to comply with new US export controls.
CEO Jensen Huang publicly supported the $115 billion Marvell Technology and Lumentum Holdings merger, adding support to the wider AI chip sector.
Nvidia stock trades below critical moving averages and faces persistent bearish momentum, with high probability of near-term declines toward the $196.05 to $208.23 range.

Revenue uncertainty rises as compliance limits Chinese market

Nvidia has directed its data center and cloud partners to ensure that at least 51% of future sales are allocated to non-Chinese buyers in order to comply with recently imposed US export regulations, according to Yahoo Finance. This move restricts Nvidia's access to a significant segment of its traditional market and introduces uncertainty about future revenue composition, which can weigh on share performance. Additionally, the company’s CEO Jensen Huang was reported by Investing.com to have publicly endorsed the $115 billion merger between Marvell Technology and Lumentum Holdings, lending some supportive sentiment to the broader AI chip sector.

Bearish momentum persists as multiple technical signals align

On the technical front, NVDA currently trades below the MA-20 at $205.79 and MA-50 at $211.55 on the hourly chart, along with the MA-200 at $204.56 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $207.35 forms immediate resistance. MACD registers a Strong Sell, while ADX signals a Sell, highlighting clear bearish momentum. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI remain in neutral zones, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions, in contrast to the prevailing trend. Bull/Bear Power stands slightly positive at 0.19, showing minor intraday buyer strength, though momentum is mostly negative. The stock closed at $202.14 after a drop of 2.2% for the session, finishing near the day's lows with moderate volatility.

Breakout risk skews to downside as volatility range narrows

In the near term, NVDA is projected to trade within a range of $196.05 to $208.23 over the coming sessions, reflecting a typical volatility band around current levels. The probability of a move higher is very low (less than 20%), while the risk of continued downside remains high (over 80%), suggesting weakness is likely to persist. Baseline scenario sees stabilization within this range. A bullish break above $207.35 could spark a test of upper resistance, whereas a move below $196.05 may trigger further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Nvidia faces short-term headwinds from strict US export rules, which could disrupt revenue streams from China. He sees management’s proactive compliance and sector engagement as positive signals, but near-term weakness is likely until the company adapts fully. The technical setup confirms momentum remains bearish, with a high chance of further downside in the current range. "Despite regulatory friction, I remain constructive on Nvidia’s long-term AI leadership and view any stabilization as a strategic accumulation opportunity."

Previously it was reported that Nvidia was working to mitigate regulatory risks and stabilize its revenue base by reducing exposure to China-bound business. The current technical and regulatory developments reinforce this cautious outlook, with continued downside risk prevailing unless NVDA can reclaim the $207.35 resistance in the near term.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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