Apple rally faces 2027 cost and supply risks, Daiwa says

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Apple faces 2027 risks

Highlights

Apple's 12-month price target was raised by Daiwa Capital Markets to $375 from $335, implying only 9% upside from Thursday’s close.
Daiwa warned that rising memory costs and supply constraints could pressure Apple's growth and margins in 2027, despite outperformance in 2026.
Apple's fiscal 2026 revenue reached $478 billion, up 15% year over year, surpassing expectations but with shares dipping on future macro risks.

Near-term support, longer-term pressure

As reported by CNBC, Daiwa Capital Markets kept its outperform rating on Apple and raised its 12-month price target to $375 from $335, although the revised target implies only about 9% upside from Thursday’s close.

In a note to clients dated Thursday, analyst Louis Miscioscia wrote that Apple’s December and March quarters should remain supported by backlog and channel fill. He added that conditions become more difficult after April 27 because of tougher comparisons and higher memory costs.

Apple shares are up nearly 27% year to date in 2026, helped by stronger-than-expected demand for the iPhone 17. The stock has also recently outperformed other technology names pressured by concerns over an AI slowdown.

Fiscal growth meets macro headwinds

Apple this week reported $478 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, up about 15% from a year earlier, beating expectations for the year. Even so, the shares edged lower after the earnings report as investors focused on macroeconomic risks that could limit future growth.

Daiwa said rising memory costs and supply constraints for key hardware components could weaken Apple’s growth profile in 2027 and add pressure to the stock. Miscioscia said prior contracts and inventory helped Apple defend costs and margins, but that becomes harder in 2027, while adding that new iPhone releases are performing well even as the new Duo appears supply-constrained.

The analyst also noted that Apple has not posted two consecutive fiscal years of double-digit growth since fiscal 2015. Wall Street’s broader view remains constructive, with 25 of 43 analysts covering Apple holding a buy or strong buy rating, according to LSEG data.

Our earlier coverage of the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) highlighted a sharp intraday selloff that left the index under short- and medium-term technical pressure, even as it stayed above its long-term moving average. We also noted the launch of JQQQ, a blockchain-native fund offering digital access to Nasdaq-100 exposure, while warning that momentum signals were mixed and downside risk remained elevated unless key resistance was reclaimed.

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