Tax policy, economics, and fiscal analysis by Erica York
Erica York: U.S. government refunds exceed tariff collections in May
Erica York reports that the federal government collected $21.93B in tariffs in May while refunding $21.97B during the same period. This resulted in a net tariff revenue of -$42 million for the ...
Tax refund numbers up 6 percent, Erica York notes
Erica York highlights that the average tax refund has been affected by an increase in returns switching from owing to receiving a refund. According to York, the number of people receiving a ...
Erica York: Income tax affects business, investment, retirement, and salary income
Erica York highlights that income tax in the U.S. is applied to a broader range of income sources than just salaries and wages. She explains that for high-income taxpayers, business, investment, ...
OBBBA estimated to reduce 2025 taxes by $129 billion, Erica York notes
Erica York shared that Tax Foundation estimates show OBBBA would reduce U.S. taxes by $129 billion in 2025, averaging $611 in relief per filer. York noted that their analysis did not specify ...
Erica York: Tariffs and rising oil prices driving up core and headline inflation
Goods prices are increasingly affected by tariffs and rising oil costs, according to Erica York, citing analysis from RBC. York highlights that the impact of tariffs is building beneath the ...
U.S. trade deficit surge in early 2025 led to misleading comparisons, Erica York explains
Temporary swings in U.S. trade flows occurred in early 2025 as firms accelerated imports to get ahead of new tariffs, according to Erica York. This rush widened the trade deficit and resulted in ...
Erica York: Import tariffs on capital goods distort early 2025 trade data
Taxing imports of capital goods raises production costs, according to Erica York. She highlighted that imports and the goods trade deficit were unusually high in early 2025 as importers sought to ...
Tariffs generated $264B in 2025 before offsets, Erica York notes
U.S. tariffs, including those introduced on Liberation Day under IEEPA, brought in significant revenue but fell short of initial projections. According to Erica York, the IEEPA tariffs raised ...
Erica York: Average U.S. tax refund remains $350 higher as total refunds up $23 billion
U.S. taxpayers are receiving higher refunds this season, with the average refund staying about $350 above last year's average. Erica York highlights that this trend continues the usual pattern of ...
U.S. average tax refunds rise $352 over last year, Erica York reports
Average U.S. tax refunds dipped by $53 this week, reaching $3,623, according to Erica York. This movement follows the typical seasonal pattern during filing season. Year-on-year, average refunds ...
Erica York: Cutting taxes to boost spending may not always grow economy
Erica York discusses the commonly held view that increasing consumer and business spending—through measures such as tax cuts—can help grow the economy. She notes that while giving consumers ...
Manufacturers see sustained input cost pressures from tariffs, Erica York says
Manufacturers in Boston continue to experience cost pressures linked to tariffs. According to Erica York, several contacts in the area noted that while manufacturers' input prices remain ...
Erica York: New study finds tariffs depress economic activity
A new research paper finds that tariffs have a negative impact on economic activity. Erica York highlighted these findings, noting additional evidence that trade barriers can hinder ...
Erica York: Tariffs could yield $36 billion in direct payments over 150 days
Erica York shared that the Tax Foundation estimates 10% tariffs on goods previously subjected to IEEPA tariffs could generate up to $36 billion in direct payments over 150 days. This figure would ...
Erica York outlines impact of new expensing provisions
Erica York highlights the significant changes brought by new expensing provisions, which allow businesses to take larger upfront deductions. Consequently, tax bills will be reduced when companies ...
Erica York warns tariffs impact household income
Erica York has issued a reminder that tariffs can reduce household income. The broader impact on overall price levels, however, will depend on the actions of the Federal ...
Erica York warns tariffs hinder productivity and economic output
Erica York emphasizes that tariffs can lead to benefits for protected sectors, but at a cost to the overall economy. Such measures tend to detract from productivity, resulting in a lower total ...
Erica York: October goods imports hit $255B as tariffs soar to 12.3 percent
Erica York highlights a significant increase in tariffs as U.S. goods imports in October totaled $255 billion, with customs duties paid amounting to $31.3 billion. This data indicates an ...
Erica York flags U.S. tariffs shrinking real incomes
Erica York has highlighted the effect of tariffs on U.S. households, stating that they reduce real, after-tax income. The shrinking of real income persists irrespective of the adjustment channel ...
