U.S. trade deficit surge in early 2025 led to misleading comparisons, Erica York explains

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Andrey Mastykin

08.04.2026

U.S. trade deficit surge in early 2025 led to misleading comparisons, Erica York explains — Trade deficit fluctuates amid tariffs

Temporary swings in U.S. trade flows occurred in early 2025 as firms accelerated imports to get ahead of new tariffs, according to Erica York. This rush widened the trade deficit and resulted in higher inventories.

By late 2025 to early 2026, trade flows normalized. York cautioned that comparing current levels to the earlier surge may misrepresent the scale of any resulting decline in the trade deficit.

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York has previously tracked shifts in U.S. tax refunds. The average refund rose by $350 this year, bringing total refunds up $23 billion. Earlier, York reported that average refunds remained $352 above last year despite a recent weekly decline.

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