Ohio housing market gains as Florida and Texas lose leverage

Highlights

Redfin July data shows U.S. sellers now outnumber buyers nearly two to one, with the Sunbelt facing the most pronounced buyer's market conditions.
Austin home prices stood 27.8% below 2022 peak in April, while Hartford was 22.5% above, as Sunbelt oversupply pushes prices down and Midwest prices stabilize or rise.
Ohio metros like Columbus saw home prices rise over 7% to $301,000, with Toledo ranked fourth-hottest for 2026 and projected for 13.1% price growth.

Buyer demand shifts toward cheaper Midwest markets

As reported by Fortune, citing Redfin, the U.S. housing market is firmly in buyers' territory, with sellers outnumbering buyers by nearly two to one in data released in July. Senior economist Asad Khan says affordability remains the biggest hurdle for buyers, but added that many markets now offer more listings, fewer bidding wars and greater room to negotiate on price, closing costs and repairs.

The imbalance is most pronounced in the Sunbelt. Miami, Nashville, Houston, San Antonio and Austin rank among the country's most lopsided buyer's markets, while Ohio markets are holding up better, with Cincinnati and Columbus remaining only modest buyer's markets and Cleveland standing out as one of the few balanced markets in the country.

Lower prices are helping drive that divergence. Median home prices in many Midwest metros remain between $200,000 and $275,000, well below the national figure of more than $400,000, while Cleveland's median home price is around $150,000. Realtor.com describes Cleveland as a comeback city supported by assets including the Cleveland Clinic, revitalized neighborhoods and cultural attractions, factors that are starting to support its housing market.

Sunbelt oversupply raises pressure on prices

Price trends are also diverging as inventory builds in southern markets. Analysis published in April by ResiClub founder Lance Lambert shows Austin home prices were 27.8% below their 2022 peak at that time, while Hartford prices were 22.5% above their 2022 peak, reflecting what Lambert called a bifurcation tied partly to mean reversion after pandemic overheating.

Lambert's analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index shows national home prices rose just 0.8% year over year between March 2025 and March 2026, and 89 of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets posted annual price declines in March. In Texas, Florida and Colorado, active inventory exceeded pre-pandemic 2019 levels at that time, a sign that overbuilding in the Sunbelt is likely to keep prices flat or push them lower.

Ohio is seeing the opposite pattern. Redfin data shows Columbus home prices are up more than 7% year over year, with a median sale price of $301,000, while Realtor.com ranks Toledo as the fourth-hottest housing market in the country for 2026 and projects price growth of 13.1%. Cleveland and Columbus also benefit from lower ownership costs, while Cincinnati's corporate base and Intel's roughly $20 billion semiconductor project near Columbus continue to support employment and housing demand.

Climate and ownership costs are adding to the pressure in Florida and Texas. Redfin says Florida is grappling with worsening natural disaster risk, rising insurance premiums and higher condo HOA fees, while Insurify data shows the state's average annual premium is $8,292, about 181% above the national average. In South Florida, condo owners are also facing special assessments linked to post-Surfside inspection laws, and in Texas, property taxes and insurance costs tied to severe weather risks are weakening the affordability advantage that once drew waves of new residents.

The “moneymaxxing” trend highlights how consumers are trying to stretch their budgets as debt rises and everyday costs stay elevated. Our earlier coverage explained that people are cutting recurring expenses, optimizing rewards, and leaning on automation and high-yield savings accounts to build more financial stability without increasing spending.

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