Gold price trades up as US-Iran conflict escalates with consecutive strikes

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Gold up 0.85% today at $4,112

Highlights

Escalating US-Iran military tensions and renewed strikes have driven oil prices higher, intensifying global inflation and market anxiety.
Heightened conflict near the Strait of Hormuz raises fears that sustained high US interest rates could suppress gold demand.
Gold is expected to fluctuate between $4,031 and $4,192 over the next 2–3 days, with a moderate upside bias and conflicting indicator signals suggesting short-term uncertainty.

Escalating US-Iran tensions drive risk sentiment, pressure gold’s appeal

Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran escalated dramatically this week, as reported by Economictimes Indiatimes, with military strikes contributing to surging oil prices and increased inflation fears. According to CNBC, US operations aimed at keeping the Strait of Hormuz open heightened regional tensions, encouraging concerns that US interest rates could remain elevated, which in turn dampened demand for non-yielding assets such as gold. Actionforex noted that a second wave of strikes and the formal end of the ceasefire by President Trump have further prolonged uncertainty, intensifying market caution.

Momentum conflict persists as intraday buying meets mixed signals

On the H4 chart, gold remains above the MA-20 but stays below the MA-50, while on the daily chart, the price is also under the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun provides immediate support at $4,100. Daily momentum indicators show conflicting signals: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) registers a strong sell and the Average Directional Index (ADX) also signals sell, whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.32 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicate moderately bullish conditions. Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are both flagged as overbought, pointing to dominant buyer momentum in the intraday context, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. This divergence among signals highlights short-term market indecision despite strong intraday buying activity.

Upside bias grows as price nears resistance and volatility zone

Over the next two to three sessions, gold is likely to fluctuate within a volatility band between $4,031 and $4,192, with the probability of an upward move estimated at 55%. Any rangebound price action during this period would suggest a phase of consolidation. A clear breakout above resistance could pave the way for additional gains, while a persistent drop below support may trigger another downward leg.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees gold supported by elevated geopolitical risks and a backdrop of macro uncertainty. He believes that despite mixed technical signals, the fundamental drivers point to a constructive outlook for the metal. The analyst maintains a positive bias, anticipating rangebound trading with a tilt to the upside as long as global tensions persist. "In my view, underlying macro and sentiment factors remain favorable for gold, and any break above resistance could lead to renewed gains in the near term."

In a recent review, analysts highlighted gold's resilience above short- and medium-term averages despite signs of stretched momentum and continued shifts in investor positioning between gold and equities. The latest escalation in geopolitical tensions and mixed technical signals now introduce heightened volatility, making a decisive breakout or breakdown from the current consolidation phase the key catalyst to monitor for the next significant move.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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