Coffee holds steady amid sellers holding control in the short term

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Coffee flat today at $273.25

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29.06.2026

Coffee holds steady amid sellers holding control in the short term — Coffee flat today at $273.25

Coffee (KC) is trading at $273.25 and ended the session with a marginal loss in a narrow daily range. The price holds above its short-term moving average but remains capped by medium and longer-term trend indicators.

KC price prediction

24H 0.16%

$302.69

48H 0.3%

$303.14

7D 0.28%

$303.06

1M 0.15%

$302.68

3M 19.91%

$362.4

6M 24.65%

$376.73

12M -25.74%

$224.42

Current price: $ 302.22 0.0800 0.03%

Closed 07/03

Daily range 301.16

302.31

Weekly range 268.82

316.67

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Highlights

KC/USD maintains short-term support, but medium- and long-term technical trends continue to favor sellers.
Intraday momentum indicators are bearish and in oversold or sell territory, confirming ongoing selling pressure.
The expected one-day range is $268.25–$278.25 with a 74% probability of a downside move unless $273.99 resistance breaks.

Bearish pressure persists as resistance holds and selling signals dominate

On the technical chart, KC/USD is supported by its 20-day moving average, while trading below the 50-day and 200-day benchmarks. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $273.99 acts as immediate resistance. Bearish momentum remains in focus as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator both signal persistent selling, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) reflects a lack of dominant trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull/Bear Power all remain in oversold or sell territory, indicating sellers are in control intraday.

Downside risk elevated as consolidation signals limited upside breakout

For the coming trading day, price action is likely to consolidate in the $268.25 to $278.25 channel. The probability of an upside breakout is limited to 26%, while a decline appears much more likely at 74%. A move above $273.99 would be required to trigger bullish momentum, while a break below $268.25 could accelerate further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees coffee trading in a technically weak position, with sellers maintaining control according to multiple momentum indicators. He notes that consolidation within the $268.25 to $278.25 range is likely, and the bias remains on the downside unless resistance at $273.99 is broken. The lack of significant news further reduces conviction for a reversal. "Until we see a clear breakout above $273.99, my outlook stays defensive and I expect pressure on the downside to persist," Kharitonov says.

Previously it was reported that coffee remained under bearish pressure as persistent supply uncertainties and technical weakness dominated sentiment. The latest session reinforces this outlook, with sellers maintaining control and a potential break below $268.25 emerging as the critical risk for renewed downside momentum.

Source of Data: KC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.

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