Low-GHG copper cable project launches in Japan: HG support levels in focus

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Copper slides 0.68% to $6.44 today

Highlights

Southern Copper posted record Q2 2026 sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income as strong metals prices offset lower Peruvian copper output.
Mitsubishi Materials and BHP launched a pilot to supply low-GHG copper cables from Chile to Japan, pioneering sustainable supply chain initiatives.
Copper trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, with momentum indicators bearish and a projected range of $6.3659 to $6.5327, favoring downside.

Earnings resilience as high prices offset Peru production drop

Southern Copper reported record quarterly sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income for Q2 2026, a result of elevated metals prices that offset the impact of lower copper production in Peru, according to Themarketsdaily. This outcome highlights resilient profitability on the producer side even in the face of production setbacks, indicating that pricing power has supported earnings. Separately, Mitsubishi Materials and BHP initiated a pilot project to deliver low-GHG copper cables from Chile to Japan using a mass-balance credit model, Ibtimes reported, underscoring early efforts to develop a more sustainable copper supply chain.

Downward momentum as resistance holds and sellers dominate indicators

HG is trading below the MA-20 at $6.4888 and the MA-50 at $6.5093 on the hourly chart, indicating these levels as near-term resistance. The long-term MA-200 at $5.9613 serves as significant support, while the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.4887 marks an additional resistance barrier. Momentum indicators are skewed towards sellers, with MACD on a Sell signal, ADX neutral, and an RSI reading of 39.73 confirming weak momentum. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, raising the potential for a technical bounce, even as Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator remain on Sell signals, reinforcing the prevailing downward momentum.

Downside risk prevails as range-bound trading expected

In the near term, copper is expected to fluctuate between $6.3659 and $6.5327, a volatility band relative to current levels. Probability currently favors a downside move (60% likelihood), suggesting an upward rebound is less probable in the immediate future. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways action within this range. A bullish breakout would require HG to reclaim the $6.4887 resistance, while a move below $6.3659 could extend the ongoing downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees a stable macro and fundamental backdrop for copper despite current price weakness. He notes that strong corporate results, like Southern Copper’s record Q2 2026 earnings, highlight producer resilience even as technical indicators remain pressured. Karapetjanc believes decarbonization initiatives, such as the BHP-Mitsubishi project, point to a constructive long-term outlook for the sector. "Solid earnings and sustainability efforts suggest copper’s fundamentals are healthy, so I remain optimistically neutral while the price consolidates," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Anglo American was maintaining steady copper production guidance despite subdued conditions in other segments of its portfolio. In the current context, the market's focus on technical levels and growing sustainability initiatives introduces additional volatility and opportunity, making the $6.4887 resistance a key threshold for traders to monitor in anticipation of a potential reversal or further downside.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.