Can rising U.S. Treasury yields pressure copper price?

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Copper gains 0.33% to $6.36 today

Highlights

Copper futures have fallen 3.5% over two sessions as rising U.S. yields and a stronger dollar reduce commodity appeal.
The stronger dollar increases copper’s cost for international buyers, intensifying pressure on dollar-denominated prices and halting prior upward momentum.
Technically, copper is expected to trade sideways in the $6.2854–$6.4432 range, with negative momentum and higher probability of further downside.

Yield-driven outflows and strong dollar constrain copper’s rally

Copper futures have retreated by approximately 3.5% across two consecutive sessions after recently touching a six-week high, with Marketscreener attributing the move to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar. Increased yields make non-yielding commodities like copper less attractive, while a firmer dollar typically puts additional pressure on dollar-denominated assets by raising their cost for overseas buyers. These market forces have curtailed copper's prior momentum, contributing to the recent moderation in prices.

Mixed momentum as bullish support counters resistance and bearish signals

On the H1 chart, HG is positioned above the MA-20 but remains under the MA-50, while the daily timeframe shows price comfortably above the MA-200, confirming ongoing long-term support. The immediate resistance can be found at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.3948, and the nearest support sits at $6.2854. Among momentum signals, MACD currently prints a strong sell, ADX indicates persistent bearish pressure, and RSI reads 42.87, while Stoch RSI is neutral and CCI signals overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power continues to slightly favor bulls, but mixed readings highlight the presence of both short-term exhaustion and conflicting pressures.

Directional uncertainty as breakout odds favor downside

Over the next two to three trading days, copper is expected to remain in a volatility band between $6.2854 and $6.4432. The probability of an upward breakout is estimated at 33%, with a 67% chance of downward movement prevailing. The baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways action, with bullish momentum likely if price can clear the $6.3948 resistance, while a drop below nearby support at $6.2854 could see renewed selling.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees copper's pause as the result of global rates and dollar moves, not fundamental weakness. The analyst believes the long-term trend remains healthy above the MA-200, while mixed momentum signals show near-term indecision. Karapetjanc expects sideways trade with eventual upside if resistance at $6.3948 is broken. In his words: "Global macro headwinds may weigh in the short run, but strong fundamental underpinnings suggest bulls have another chance if copper holds above $6.2854."

Previously it was reported that copper was experiencing downward pressure, with technical resistance and sustainability developments contributing to mixed sentiment among traders. The current environment reinforces this cautious outlook, as macroeconomic headwinds and conflicting indicator signals suggest monitoring $6.3948 as the decisive resistance level for any potential upside break.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.