XAG holds steady as Federal Reserve holds rates unchanged

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Silver gains 0.92% today to $58.17

Highlights

Silver demand increased following the Federal Reserve's rate hold, which weakened the US dollar and benefited dollar-denominated assets.
Ongoing physical supply shortages and a sixth consecutive yearly deficit are supporting silver's underlying strength and limiting downside.
Technical signals reflect near-term bullish momentum, with price likely to trade between $57.39 and $58.95, favoring an upside breakout.

Fed pause and supply deficits reinforce bullish flows in silver

Silver has found renewed buying interest after the Federal Reserve opted to keep rates unchanged, a decision that weakened the US Dollar and created a supportive environment for dollar-denominated assets, according to Fxstreet. In addition, reports of persistent tightness in the physical silver market and a sixth consecutive supply deficit, as highlighted by Fxleaders, add to the underlying strength by limiting available supply. Heightened volatility around the time of renewed US-Iran tensions and rebounding oil prices has contributed to active trading in recent sessions, with market conditions reflecting the interplay of macroeconomic and physical supply dynamics.

Mixed momentum amid support near Kijun and resistance capped below MA-200

On the technical front, XAG is trading above the MA-20 at $57.77 and the MA-50 at $57.51 on the hourly chart, while it remains below the MA-200 at $75.94 on the daily timeframe. Immediate support sits at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $58.01, with short-term resistance seen near $58.95 and support at $57.39. Momentum indicators are mixed: both MACD and ADX are neutral, RSI is at 54.46 with CCI issuing a buy signal, and Stochastic RSI remains in overbought territory. Bull/Bear Power points to intraday buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator gives a strong buy reading, highlighting underlying bullish momentum for now.

Upside retest likely as consolidation holds with bullish bias

In the short term, XAG is expected to trade within a range from $57.39 to $58.95, with a very high probability of testing higher resistance levels. The baseline scenario calls for price consolidation between major support and resistance. If bullish momentum accelerates, a move above $58.95 could bring further upside toward the upper extremes of the volatility band. If price fails to hold above immediate support, a downward scenario could see a test of the $57.39 area, but this outcome is viewed as very unlikely given the current setup.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the current setup for silver as fundamentally constructive but not without risks. He notes supportive fundamentals from Fed policy and persistent supply deficits. Yet, technicals show bullish momentum facing major resistance, while volatility from political tensions adds uncertainty. "Base case remains consolidation between $57.39 and $58.95 — until a clear break, I remain cautious on fresh long positions."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was caught in a period of indecisive trading, shaped by cautious sentiment and mixed technical momentum amid external macroeconomic uncertainties. The latest developments—marked by renewed Fed-driven buying and ongoing physical market tightness—shift the outlook toward a more constructive bias, with sustained closes above $58.95 serving as the trigger for a potential breakout from the prevailing consolidation phase.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.