Will Brent crude price hold above key support amid mixed momentum signals?

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Brent crude drops 1.21% today

Highlights

Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels have increased geopolitical risk to Brent crude supply in the Gulf region.
Disruptions in Middle East shipping routes have kept Brent crude loadings lower than pre-war levels, tightening global supply.
Brent crude trades under short- and medium-term pressure with mixed technical signals, likely consolidating in a $103.35 to $106.15 range over the next few days.

Supply disruption risk rises as Middle East conflicts curb Brent loadings

Escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have increased geopolitical risk in a key oil-producing region, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Brent crude supply, according to Ndtvprofit. Middle East conflicts have also continued to impact shipping routes for Gulf crude, keeping Brent loadings below pre-war levels and contributing to a tighter global supply backdrop, as noted by UBS Global Wealth Management and reported by Finance Biggo. These persistent supply-side challenges have set the stage for recent price dynamics, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technical signals as short-term weakness faces long-term support

On the hourly chart, XBR is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50, indicating short- and medium-term weakness, while support remains from the long-term MA-200 at $93.16. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $105.28, limiting upward moves, with technical support observed near $103.35. Momentum indicators display a negative bias: MACD signals a Strong Sell, ADX issues a Sell, and RSI currently stands at 45.97, reflecting mild selling activity. Stoch RSI is in Overbought territory, CCI is Neutral, and Bull/Bear Power shows strong buyer pressure intraday, diverging from negative momentum cues; the Awesome Oscillator is Neutral. Conflicting oscillator and trend signals suggest a mixed technical backdrop.

Consolidation expected as breakout risks define short-term Brent range

Over the next two to three sessions, XBR is projected to trade within a typical volatility range of $103.35 to $106.15. There is a slightly higher probability of an upward move (53%) compared to a move down (47%). The baseline scenario anticipates consolidation within this corridor. A bullish breakout above $105.28 could open the way for further gains, while a move below $103.35 may reinforce near-term downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, Analyst at Traders Union, notes that Brent crude remains under technical pressure despite persistent geopolitical risks. He sees key support holding above $103.35, but negative momentum and conflicting signals keep the outlook unclear. Kharitonov believes near-term trading will be rangebound, with upside limited unless resistance at $105.28 is broken. "Until buyers push above $105.28, I remain defensive and see consolidation as the base case for Brent crude."

Previously it was reported that global oil market volatility and geopolitical tensions were influencing both international crude prices and local fuel adjustments in Pakistan. The current analysis adds further depth by highlighting short- and medium-term technical signals alongside ongoing regional risks, with traders advised to monitor a potential breakout above $105.28 or a drop below $103.35 as key triggers for Brent crude’s next directional move.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.