Copper price forecast: Consolidation expected below $6.6 resistance on weak momentum

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Copper slips 0.76% today to $6.57

Highlights

Copper held within the $6.55 to $6.65 range as technical barriers limited significant price movement and speculative activity.
Weaker US dollar conditions offered some support, but concerns about future AI-related capital expenditure produced mixed demand signals for copper.
Technical indicators show weak momentum and a high probability of a move toward $6.514, with resistance at $6.6 and consolidation likely short term.

Currency gains limited by AI spending concerns as sentiment stays mixed

According to Investing.com, copper prices remained confined within the $6.55 to $6.65 range, highlighting persistent technical constraints that have limited directional flow and dampened speculative activity. The report also notes that copper benefitted from a weaker US dollar, which generally improves demand among holders of other currencies by adjusting short-term purchasing power. However, these supportive currency effects have been moderated by market concerns over the outlook for AI-related capital spending, leaving the commodity subject to mixed sentiment.

Momentum weakness persists as prices test resistance and support levels

On the H1 chart, HG trades below the MA-20 and MA-50, with the daily MA-200 providing longer-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.6 now serves as immediate resistance. Momentum remains soft: RSI holds at 49.38 (Sell), with MACD also reflecting sell signals. ADX, Stoch RSI, and CCI all register as Neutral, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction, while Bull/Bear Power points to modest buyer dominance on an intraday basis. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) signals ongoing downward pressure in line with the recent performance.

Downside favored unless range breaks on decisive catalyst

In the near term, copper is likely to consolidate between $6.514 and $6.63, remaining within this volatility band relative to current levels. Probabilities favor continued downside in the short run, with upward moves considered unlikely unless price breaks decisively above the $6.6 resistance. A bearish scenario materializes if support near $6.514 is breached, while stabilization within this range is the baseline expectation unless catalyst-driven momentum emerges.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees copper trading in a restrained manner as technical barriers and shifting macro conditions influence sentiment. He believes the current range near $6.55 to $6.65 will persist without a decisive move above key resistance. Constructive factors like the weaker US dollar lend some support, but mixed fundamentals and range-bound action still dominate. "A breakout above $6.6 could trigger new buying interest, but until then, consolidation is the likeliest scenario for copper in the short term."

Previously it was reported that Orion Minerals secured initial funding to begin work at its Prieska Copper Zinc Mine, marking a major step toward restarting copper production in South Africa's Northern Cape. Against this backdrop, copper’s technical pressures and muted momentum suggest traders should closely monitor the $6.514 support level, as a break below could trigger further downside beyond the current consolidation band.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.