XAU declines as seller pressure dominates after Fed policy and dollar strength

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Gold slides 1.27% to $4,018 today

Highlights

The US Dollar gained after the Federal Reserve policy announcement, reducing gold demand from buyers using other currencies.
Key gold support levels have held as markets await further inflation data, keeping directional moves limited and positioning cautious.
Gold trades below major moving averages with bearish momentum, forecasting a $3,997 to $4,039 range and high downside risk.

Dollar gains post-Fed and new tokenized gold limit bullish flows

The US Dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, directly weighing on gold demand by making the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies, according to FXStreet. As markets continue to digest the policy outlook and look ahead to upcoming inflation data, key support levels in gold have held, limiting directional moves and reflecting cautious positioning, as noted by Babypips. Additionally, the launch of the Hong Kong-regulated tokenized gold asset XAUa on October 28, 2026, on the Sui blockchain with strict compliance controls, was reported by Kucoin, though its immediate effect on broader market flows has been limited.

Bearish signals persist as XAU tests near-term support cluster

XAU trades below the MA-20 at $4,043 and MA-50 at $4,045 on the hourly chart, as well as remaining under the longer-term MA-200 at $4,378. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,049 stands as immediate resistance, while the price hovers near today’s low with the next key support at $3,997. On the indicator front, MACD, RSI, and CCI each show sell signals, whereas ADX and Stochastic RSI are neutral. Despite general bearish momentum cues, Bull/Bear Power indicates buyer dominance at overbought levels, suggesting possible short-term divergence.

Downside risk high as short-term consolidation narrows potential

In the short term, gold is likely to consolidate within the $3,997 to $4,039 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is very low in the coming 2–3 trading days, while the potential for further downside is considered high. If price breaks above immediate resistance at $4,049, this would open the way for a bullish scenario, but a move below $3,997 support would confirm additional downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees gold’s technical picture as weak, with price below all major moving averages and persistent bearish momentum. He notes that a stronger US Dollar after the Fed decision is directly hurting gold demand, while cautious sentiment prevails with markets waiting for fresh inflation data. The expert believes tokenized gold products remain a niche factor and do not alter the current risk-off mood. "Unless $4,049 is reclaimed quickly, the downside toward $3,997 looks much more probable in the short term."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold remained under pressure due to persistent concerns about U.S. monetary policy and the prospect of higher interest rates. The latest technical developments reinforce this bearish scenario, with immediate focus on whether gold can maintain support above $3,997 amid headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.