Gulf oil exports ease from post-war high as Hormuz shipping risks cloud October data

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Gulf oil exports, Hormuz risks

Highlights

Gulf oil exports averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September, according to Vortexa and Kpler.
Analysts expect October export figures to be revised upward as incomplete tracking, caused by tankers switching off signals near the Strait of Hormuz, creates reporting delays.
October saw record attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, increasing export data uncertainty and disrupting tanker movements in a key oil corridor.

October export estimates and tracking revisions

As reported by Reuters, ship-tracking data from Vortexa and Kpler indicates Gulf oil exports decline in October from September's post-war high, while both firms say incomplete voyage visibility could lift the final totals.

Vortexa says flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, average 17.1 million barrels per day in October. That is down from 18.9 million barrels per day in September, but still amounts to roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.

George Morris, an analyst at Vortexa, says Middle East seaborne oil exports pull back slightly from recent post-war highs as risks in the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Vortexa adds that the October figure is more likely to be revised upward than downward because many shuttle tankers crossing the strait switch off tracking signals as a safety measure, forcing analysts to rely on satellite imagery and creating a reporting lag.

Kpler also shows a drop in shipments, with crude and condensate flows down by about 1 million barrels per day from September. The firm likewise says an upward revision is likely as more shipment information becomes available.

Strait of Hormuz risks reshape market visibility

Attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz intensify and reach a record in October, complicating the movement of tankers and reducing transparency in one of the world's most important oil transit corridors. Efforts by vessels to avoid detection are making real-time export estimates less reliable and increasing the chance of later adjustments.

For oil markets, that means preliminary Gulf export data now carries a wider margin of uncertainty even when the broader direction points to softer monthly flows. The disruption risk in the strait remains a key factor for traders and analysts watching regional supply, especially while export volumes stay well below pre-war levels.

Our earlier coverage of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption highlighted how prolonged uncertainty is beginning to hit global food supply chains through delayed fertilizer flows, higher fuel and transport costs, and more cautious planting decisions that can reduce yields. We also noted that agricultural commodity prices had already risen and that continued disruptions could amplify food-security risks in import-dependent regions across Asia and Africa.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.