ECRL projects passenger revenue to rise 3% annually, while cargo revenue surges by 2029

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ECRL 2029 revenue projections

Highlights

ECRL projects passenger revenue to rise from RM192 million in 2027 to RM204 million in 2029, representing annual growth of 3%.
Cargo revenue is expected to rise from RM68 million in 2027 to RM214 million in 2029, surging more than threefold ahead of the start of services.
The cost of the ECRL project for the 665-kilometre route exceeds RM52.43 billion, with Malaysia Rail Link and China Communications Construction sharing operational risks.

This article was translated from the original. Read the original version by our correspondent here.

ECRL revenue projections and operating model

According to The Edge Malaysia, citing the Transport Ministry in a written parliamentary reply published on Monday, ECRL passenger revenue is projected to reach RM192 million in 2027, rising to RM198 million in 2028 and RM204 million in 2029, based on a consultant study conducted in 2025.

Transport Minister Anthony Loke Siew Fook said cargo revenue is projected to increase from RM68 million in 2027 to RM71 million in 2028, before surging more than threefold to RM214 million in 2029. He said the projections are subject to actual operating performance, including passenger numbers, cargo volumes and changes in market demand.

He was responding to a question from Datuk Wan Saiful Wan Jan about track construction costs, annual government payments, revenue projections and measures to ensure operational sustainability. However, the reply did not explain the reason for the surge in cargo revenue in 2029 or provide annual projections for passenger numbers.

Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd previously stated a target of approximately 1.4 million passengers in 2027, compared with around 2.2 million available seats. Although passengers are expected to contribute nearly three-quarters of service revenue in 2027, the long-term business model targets cargo contributing around 70% and passengers the remaining 30%.

According to Loke, this approach will enable the railway to capitalise on demand for freight movement between the east and west coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, as well as access to major ports. Passenger and cargo revenue is also expected to help cover operating, maintenance and related costs, while ECRL Operation Sdn Bhd also plans to generate non-fare income through space rentals, advertising and other commercial activities.

Project cost implications and service rollout

EOSB is equally owned by MRL and China Communications Construction (ECRL) Sdn Bhd. Loke said the arrangement involves sharing operational risks, giving both shareholders an incentive to increase revenue, improve asset utilisation and control costs.

He also listed loans from China Exim Bank, MRL sukuk, the Transport Ministry's development allocation and financing from the Ministry of Finance as sources of project funding. However, the reply did not provide a breakdown of financing or quantify the government's annual repayment obligations.

The total cost of the ECRL project, covering the 665-kilometre route from Kota Bharu to Port Klang, now exceeds RM52.43 billion. Loke said the railway's value should not be measured solely by direct financial returns, but also by its contribution to connectivity, logistics and economic activity.

On fares, the government considers affordability, competing transport options, journey times and service quality, in addition to long-term operational sustainability. MRL announced on 19 Oct that one-way fares from Gombak to Kota Bharu start at RM125 for the Transit service and RM147 for the Express service, with dynamic pricing allowing fares to rise depending on booking time and seasonal demand.

Passenger services on the route are targeted to begin in mid-December, subject to safety requirements and regulatory approval.

In our earlier coverage of the 2027 Budget debate and the use of GLCs/GLICs to fund non-commercial projects, we highlighted warnings that such a move could weaken the financial position of these entities and harm the interests of contributors and pensioners if there were no government repayment guarantees. The article also outlined calls for requirements such as written instructions, full cost calculations and annual disclosures to improve transparency and limit risks to cash flow and the entities' core mandates.

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