German retail sector lifts real sales growth outlook as Christmas demand steadies
Germany's retail industry is now expecting slightly stronger inflation-adjusted sales growth this year as year-end consumer spending shows resilience despite higher energy costs. The updated forecast points to 1% real revenue growth, up from an earlier expectation of 0.5%, while the nominal sales outlook remains unchanged.
Highlights
- Germany's retail association HDE raised its 2024 real-term revenue growth forecast to 1%, up from a previous 0.5% projection.
- HDE maintained its nominal sales growth forecast at 2%, expecting total sales to reach 697 billion euros this year.
- Stable Christmas spending is expected to offset higher energy costs, helping preserve retail volume and full-year revenue in the sector.
Revised outlook for 2026 sales
As reported by Reuters, Germany's retail association HDE said on Tuesday that retailers now expect real-term revenue to rise by 1% this year, compared with its earlier forecast for 0.5% growth.HDE President Alexander von Preen said in a statement that there are signs Christmas trading may be able to withstand the broader crisis. The industry's improved outlook comes as stable holiday spending is expected to help offset pressure from higher energy prices.
When not adjusted for inflation, the lobby group confirmed its forecast for 2% sales growth to 697 billion euros this year.
Consumer spending and sector implications
The revised projection suggests Germany's retailers are seeing more resilience in consumer demand than previously expected, even as households and businesses continue to face elevated energy-related costs.A steadier Christmas season is particularly important for the sector because year-end trading can have an outsized effect on full-year revenue, especially as retailers try to preserve volumes in a still pressured cost environment.
Our earlier DAX price analysis highlighted the index trading firmly above key moving averages, reflecting sustained buyer confidence and bullish momentum. It also outlined key support and resistance levels, noting that a break higher could extend gains while a drop below support could trigger a deeper pullback. Overall, the piece pointed to improving sentiment around German assets as demand for DAX components strengthened.
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