Ethereum price prediction: ETH stalls near $2,950 as recovery momentum fades

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Ethereum price update

Highlights

Ethereum trades near $2,950 after failing to hold above $4,000 earlier this quarter.
Spot outflows persist, with the latest reading near negative $18.7M.
Open interest slips toward $37B as leverage continues to unwind.

The market is no longer in free fall, but it remains decisively below levels that would signal a trend recovery. What has emerged instead is a slow compression driven by fading participation and increasingly cautious positioning.The pullback reflects a broader cooling across digital assets after the strong rally earlier in the year. While selling pressure has moderated, the absence of renewed demand has kept Ethereum trapped in a narrow range, with traders focused more on capital preservation than directional conviction.

Daily chart shows rallies capped beneath declining EMA resistance

The daily chart underscores the depth of Ethereum’s corrective structure. Price remains below its full EMA stack, reinforcing the bearish bias that has developed since early November. The 20-day EMA near $3,075 and the 50-day EMA around $3,250 act as immediate resistance, rejecting every rebound attempt over the past month. Above them, the 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered near $3,430 to $3,450 define the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend.

ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

This configuration shows that sellers are still controlling rallies rather than pressing price aggressively lower. Each bounce has been met with supply well before Ethereum can reclaim even short-term trend indicators. As long as price remains capped beneath the 20-day EMA, upside moves are likely to remain corrective rather than structural.

Momentum indicators reinforce this assessment. Daily RSI is holding in the low-40s, a range that reflects weakening downside pressure but not a reversal. The indicator has failed to reclaim the 50 midpoint since early November, signaling that bullish momentum has not re-entered the market. Instead, Ethereum continues to drift lower in overlapping waves, a pattern typical of corrective phases that persist until demand returns or support fails decisively.

Short-term stabilization fails to attract accumulation

Short-term price action shows how this compression is unfolding. On the 30-minute chart, Ethereum experienced a sharp liquidation-driven drop from above $3,100 earlier in the week before finding support near the $2,900 level. From there, price rebounded modestly into a tight consolidation band.

Supertrend resistance has flattened near $2,975, while SAR dots have flipped beneath price, indicating that immediate downside pressure has eased. However, repeated failures near the $2,980 to $3,000 zone highlight continued reluctance from buyers to defend higher levels. This behavior suggests stabilization through balance rather than accumulation, with traders willing to engage tactically but not commit capital aggressively.

The lack of impulsive follow-through on rebounds reflects broader uncertainty. Without expanding volume or decisive reclaim of resistance, short-term bounces remain vulnerable to renewed selling.

Flows and derivatives reinforce defensive posture

Spot flow data adds an important layer of caution. Ethereum continues to record persistent net outflows, with the most recent session near negative $18.7M. While these figures do not indicate capitulation, they confirm that spot buyers remain largely absent. Historically, Ethereum’s sustainable recoveries have coincided with a clear shift toward net inflows, and that signal has yet to materialize.

Derivatives positioning mirrors this restraint. Trading volume has dropped sharply, and open interest has edged lower to around $37B, indicating leverage is being reduced rather than rebuilt. Long-to-short ratios show traders leaning long, particularly among top accounts, but liquidation data reveals that long positions continue to absorb the majority of forced exits.

This imbalance suggests repeated attempts to anticipate a bottom are still being punished. As long as leverage continues to unwind and spot demand remains weak, speculative conviction is likely to stay muted.

Market outlook

From a structural perspective, the $2,900 to $2,880 zone now represents a critical near-term support band. A clean daily break below this area would expose the $2,700 to $2,750 region, where deeper demand would be tested. On the upside, Ethereum would need to reclaim and hold above $3,075 to signal that sellers are losing control. A move toward $3,250 would only become plausible if spot flows turn constructive and volume expands meaningfully.

Previously, we highlighted Ethereum’s vulnerability after it failed to hold above its short-term moving averages and saw spot outflows persist. The current compression confirms that assessment. Selling pressure has eased, but without renewed demand or trend reclaim, stabilization alone is not sufficient to shift the broader outlook.

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