ETC weekly forecast: recovery attempts stall under MA-20 with oversold signals persisting

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Ethereum Classic gains 1.78% this week

Highlights

Ethereum Classic (ETC) rose 1.78% over the past week, closing at $12.59 but remaining below key moving averages (MA-20 $15.96, MA-50 $17.67, MA-200 $21.96).
Momentum indicators such as MACD (-2.52), ADX (21.5), and RSI (35.29) show sellers dominating but signal a possible stabilization as oscillators approach oversold conditions.
For the coming week, ETC is expected to trade sideways within a $12.10–$13.10 range, with probability of further downside exceeding 80% due to prevailing negative momentum.

Bearish momentum persists over the week as oversold signals build

Weekly technical analysis for ETC indicates continued bearish momentum. On the W1 timeframe, the MACD remains negative at -2.52 and the ADX shows a reading of 21.5, suggesting a weak but prevailing downtrend. Oscillators such as the Stoch RSI (15.75) and BBP highlight oversold conditions, while RSI at 35.29 and the CCI remain subdued but above extreme lows. The weekly price action closed above the low at $12.21, but well below the high at $13.55, confirming moderate volatility and a tentative attempt at stabilization. The nearest dynamic resistance on W1 is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $16.47.

Sideways bias expected next week amid heightened downside risk

For the next five to seven trading days, ETC is expected to fluctuate within a range of $12.10 to $13.10, reflecting the recent volatility and technical positioning. The likelihood of meaningful upside is low, with prevailing selling pressure suggesting a sideways or slightly lower trend as the baseline scenario. A break above $13.10 would open scope for a move toward $13.50, while sustained weakness below $12.10 could trigger a retest of the $12.00 – $12.20 support zone, possibly leading to further declines if bearish momentum increases.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum Classic maintaining bearish momentum this week. The price remains below key weekly moving averages and failed to break through resistance at $13.10. Technical indicators point to a fragile recovery with the majority still favoring sellers. Oscillators show oversold conditions, but no strong reversal signals have emerged. Kharitonov believes the baseline scenario remains sideways within the $12.10–$13.10 range, with limited upside and a risk of further declines. "As long as Ethereum Classic stays below the $13.10 resistance zone, I remain cautious and see no strong reason to expect a sustained recovery this week."

Previously it was noted that Ethereum Classic faced persistent selling pressure, with key oscillators — including RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI — deeply oversold, underscoring exhaustion but lacking clear reversal signals. The article highlighted that the probability of upward price movement in the coming week was very low, with downside risks dominating the short-term outlook.

Source of Data: ETC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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