DOT weekly forecast: sustained selling keeps price below moving averages

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Polkadot down 13.33% over the week

Highlights

DOT trades at $1.924, well below MA-20 ($2.887), MA-50 ($3.646), and MA-200 ($6.067), underscoring broad-based selling pressure.
Weekly MACD (–0.691), ADX (23.6), and RSI (38.7) confirm a dominant downside trend with minimal probability of a bullish reversal.
Key support rests at $1.84; a close below this level could trigger new lows, while resistance stands at $2.12 with negligible breakout probability.

Ecosystem upgrades and ETF reviews spark attention amid steady development

Recent network upgrades for DOT included the rollout of v2.0.5 runtime, integrating Ethereum-compatible development tools and enabling Elastic Scaling to enhance transaction throughput. The project’s treasury now manages over $70 million to support ecosystem development, and robust developer activity is evident with nearly 8,900 contributors and an active hackathon scene. Additionally, ETF products from Grayscale and 21Shares are under SEC review, with the 21Shares product’s initial seed creation set at $25 per share.

Ongoing bearish momentum confirmed as technical signals intensify this week

Technical analysis on the weekly timeframe underscores DOT’s sustained downward momentum, with prices staying far below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200. Momentum indicators on the W1 chart remain bearish: the MACD is deep in negative territory at –0.691, and the ADX at 23.6 verifies a strong downside trend. Oscillator readings, including an RSI at 38.7 and a CCI at –64.8, confirm prevailing weakness, while bull-bear power at –0.070 highlights continued seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, and DOT closed near the weekly low, pointing to heightened volatility and persistent selling.

Bearish bias and breakout risk persist amid expected range-bound trade

For the next 5–7 trading days, DOT is expected to move within a volatile range of $1.84 to $2.12, reflecting the ongoing bearish bias from weekly momentum signals. The probability of a price rebound above $2.12 remains low (less than 20%), while further declines below $1.84 are more likely given the lack of bullish support. The base scenario points to sideways action between these levels, with any meaningful upside requiring a breakout above dynamic resistance and clear momentum reversal signals.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that Polkadot struggled this week, closing sharply lower and remaining well beneath all key weekly moving averages. He believes persistent downside momentum, weak oscillator signals, and the lack of bullish triggers keep sellers in control, despite recent network upgrades and ETF news. Sideways action between $1.84 and $2.12 is expected, but further declines appear more likely unless a decisive breakout occurs. "With weekly momentum firmly bearish and no clear recovery pattern yet, I see little reason to chase upside — base scenario is rangebound trading with risks still tilted to the downside."

Last time, analysts noted that Polkadot remains below its key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, reinforcing ongoing bearish momentum despite a slight price uptick. Technical indicators are mixed—MACD is bullish while RSI, CCI, and Stochastics signal oversold conditions—suggesting continued consolidation between support at $1.94 and resistance at $2.10 as low volatility constrains upside potential.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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