Polkadot price prediction: Will technical weakness worsen? DOT falls 7.7% to $1.70

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Polkadot drops 7.69% to $1.705 today

Highlights

Polkadot reported its first quarterly profit since public disclosures began, posting a $4.1 million gain in Q4 2025 driven by reduced spending and asset diversification.
Gavin Wood’s return as CEO of Parity Technologies has renewed focus on core development and treasury management, while network upgrades improve transaction speeds for native applications.
DOT trades well below MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with high probability (>80%) of maintaining a bearish range between $1.65 and $1.90 amid persistent negative momentum.

Quarterly profit and leadership change drive renewed investor focus

Polkadot has reported its first quarterly profit since public financial disclosures began, with a $4.1 million gain for the fourth quarter of 2025 due to reduced spending and asset diversification. This improvement is partly driven by Gavin Wood’s return as CEO of Parity Technologies, bringing renewed focus to essential development and treasury management. Ongoing network upgrades have also enhanced transaction speeds and supported Polkadot-native applications.

Momentum fades as bearish signals and volatility intensify

Momentum signals remain weak, with both MACD and ADX on the daily chart showing a clear loss of buying interest and subdued trend strength. Oscillators indicate that DOT is approaching oversold territory: RSI stands at 40, Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold at 13, and CCI confirms selling pressure at –97. Bull/Bear Power remains negative, underscoring continued dominance by sellers, while the Awesome Oscillator also signals ongoing bearish conditions. The nearest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun at $2.062, with no immediate upward support evident from major averages. Intraday volatility is high, with price pressured steadily lower since the open, reinforcing the negative momentum signaled by technical indicators.

Downside risk dominates as bearish momentum sets volatility range

Looking ahead to the next five trading days, the expected price range for DOT is adjusted to $1.65 – $1.90 to reflect typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of further declines is very high (more than 80%), while a sustainable rebound appears unlikely at this stage. A baseline scenario keeps DOT trading sideways within this volatility band, with renewed bearish momentum possible if the price breaks below $1.65. A bullish reversal would require a move above the Kijun resistance at $2.06, which current indicators do not support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views Polkadot’s technical outlook as decisively bearish. He notes that recent financial improvements and leadership changes have not translated into positive price action. Core momentum signals remain negative and the risk of further declines is elevated. "Until DOT reclaims $2.06, my base case remains sideways-to-lower — rallies are for reducing risk, not chasing."

Previously it was reported that Polkadot remains under persistent selling pressure, trading well below key moving averages and exhibiting sustained bearish momentum as indicated by negative MACD and low RSI values. Near-term price action is expected to stay volatile within a defined range, with further downside risk prevailing absent any bullish reversal signals.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.