U.S. government shutdown probability reaches 83%, crypto market cap falls to $2.3 trillion

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U.S. funding risk hits digital assets

Highlights

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has risen to 83%, intensifying risk-off sentiment across financial and crypto markets.
Bitcoin remains under pressure near the $60,000–$70,000 support zone after breaking below key resistance levels earlier in 2026.
Analysts are divided, with some warning of a drop below $50,000 while others expect prolonged range-bound volatility before a base forms.

On prediction platform Polymarket, traders are pricing in an 83% chance that lawmakers will fail to reach a funding agreement before the deadline. The jump in expectations comes as federal funding is set to expire, raising doubts that Congress can pass even a short-term spending bill in time, CoinGape reports.

Rising political tensions have coincided with renewed weakness in digital assets. According to CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 0.7% to approximately $2.3 trillion. Bitcoin, which recently dipped below $70,000 during the last partial government shutdown, remains under pressure as overall risk appetite continues to decline.

Possibility of a U.S. government shutdown. Source: Polymarket

Bitcoin holds key support amid technical weakness

Market analysts say the sell-off reflects both macroeconomic anxiety and deteriorating technical signals. Earlier in 2026, Bitcoin was rejected near the $95,000–$100,000 resistance zone before breaking below its prior $85,000–$90,000 consolidation range. That breakdown accelerated losses toward the $60,000–$70,000 support area.

The Relative Strength Index currently sits near 30, close to oversold territory, while the MACD remains deeply negative, signaling persistent bearish momentum. Immediate support is seen near $65,700, followed by the psychological $60,000 level, while resistance has shifted lower to the $70,000–$72,000 zone.

Sentiment indicators underscore the cautious tone. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slipped to 5 from 10, reflecting extreme fear among investors. Historically, such readings often coincide with heightened volatility.

Analysts divided on next move

On social platform X, analysts offered diverging outlooks. The Hunter warned that Bitcoin near $67,000, Ethereum around $1,950 and Solana at $81 could face further declines, suggesting BTC might fall below $50,000 if selling pressure intensifies.

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Axel Bitblaze offered a more measured assessment, comparing the current market structure to 2024 before a significant rally. He projected Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $60,000 and $80,000 for an extended period, with sharp rallies followed by pullbacks. While dismissing a swift V-shaped recovery, he also rejected the likelihood of an immediate plunge to $50,000, instead describing a gradual grind lower that exhausts traders before a base forms.

Conclusion

Rising shutdown odds have coincided with renewed crypto market weakness and extreme fear readings. Bitcoin’s technical structure remains fragile after breaking key consolidation levels. While some analysts warn of deeper losses, others expect prolonged range-bound volatility before stabilization emerges.

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