Standard Chartered warns of final crypto capitulation before recovery
Standard Chartered has warned that crypto markets may face one last wave of selling pressure before staging a broader recovery.
In a note to clients, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at the bank, said Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 in the coming months, reports BeInCrypto.
He described the current environment as one of intensifying macro headwinds and weakening ETF flows, suggesting that downside risks have not yet been fully exhausted. “I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices,” Kendrick wrote. The bank lowered its previous targets of $150,000 for Bitcoin and $7,500 for Ethereum, signaling a more cautious near-term stance. However, Kendrick framed the projected lows as potential long-term entry points rather than signs of structural breakdown.
Macro Pressure and ETF Outflows Weigh on Sentiment
According to Kendrick, macroeconomic uncertainty is a key driver behind the bearish outlook. While the U.S. economy shows signs of softening, markets are not expecting immediate rate cuts, limiting liquidity support for risk assets. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin ETF holdings have declined in an orderly fashion, with the average holder now sitting on losses of roughly 25%.
In this environment, he said ETF investors may be more inclined to sell into weakness rather than buy the dip. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were a major catalyst during the last rally, and sustained outflows could amplify volatility if redemptions accelerate. The bank also highlighted that expectations around potential Federal Reserve leadership changes may delay policy shifts that could otherwise support markets.
Recovery Path Into 2026 Remains Intact
Despite forecasting further declines, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive long-term outlook. Kendrick emphasized that this downturn differs from prior crypto bear markets, particularly 2022, as it has not involved major platform collapses or systemic failures. He argued that this resilience reflects a maturing asset class with stronger structural foundations.
Once prices reach projected lows, the bank expects a recovery to unfold through the remainder of 2026. Standard Chartered now forecasts Bitcoin returning to $100,000 and Ethereum to $4,000 by year-end 2026. A drop to $50,000 would represent roughly a 26% decline from current levels, positioning the next few months as potentially decisive for market direction.
Recently we wrote that the nation’s largest banking trade group is pressing federal regulators to pause the approval of new crypto-focused bank charters, warning that the rapid integration of digital asset firms into the regulated banking system could outpace the development of clear oversight rules.
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