Bitwise and GraniteShares File for U.S. election prediction ETFs

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitwise and GraniteShares target 2028 vote

ETF issuers target election outcomes

Bitwise this week submitted a prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for six new funds under its PredictionShares brand. The proposed ETFs would track the results of the 2028 presidential election and the 2026 midterm races for control of the Senate and House of Representatives.

According to the filing, “The fund’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that a member of the Democratic Party is the winner of the US Presidential election taking place on November 7, 2028.” The structure relies on binary contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges that settle at $1 if the specified outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.

The prospectus is explicit about the risk: “In the event that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 Presidential election, the fund will lose substantially all of its value.” Bitwise indicated that after the 2028 election, certain presidential funds would liquidate and distribute remaining assets to shareholders.

GraniteShares filed a parallel set of six ETFs tied to the same election cycles. Unlike Bitwise’s structure, GraniteShares signaled that its funds may be reconfigured for future elections rather than terminated.

Zero-sum structure and regulatory path

These proposed products highlight the zero-sum nature of political derivatives. Funds linked to the losing party in a given race would effectively become worthless once contracts settle. Each ETF would invest at least 80% of net assets in political event contracts, with share prices fluctuating between $0 and $1 based on market-implied probabilities driven by polling data and news flow.

While issuers did not disclose specific trading venues, filings reference the use of Designated Contract Markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Platforms such as Kalshi and other prediction-market operators have expanded offerings in recent election cycles.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented on the trend, noting: “The financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues.”

Expanding the ETF frontier

The SEC has not yet approved any political prediction market ETFs. However, repeated filings suggest issuers see strong demand for regulated access to event-based derivatives, particularly as election cycles intensify.

If authorized, the funds would represent a novel intersection of capital markets and political forecasting, transforming binary election bets into tradable securities accessible through brokerage accounts.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.