Short-term rebound clashes with bearish momentum

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Polkadot gains 7.00% today to $1.329

Highlights

DOT's current price at $1.329 sits just above the MA-20 ($1.321) but remains well below both the MA-50 ($1.686) and MA-200 ($2.772), reflecting medium- and long-term bearish pressure.
Momentum indicators including daily MACD, ADX, low RSI (34), and deep oversold CCI all signal persistent bearish strength despite a 7.00% intraday rise.
Key range for the next five sessions is expected between $1.18 support and $1.42 resistance, with a bearish price bias and less than 20% probability of upside.

Intraday buying contrasts with bearish momentum as volatility rises

Momentum signals on the daily chart remain negative for DOT, with both the MACD and ADX indicating persistent bearish strength. The Relative Strength Index is low at 34, and the Commodity Channel Index is deep in oversold territory, while the Stochastic RSI is neutral, suggesting mixed but generally weak momentum. Bull/Bear Power continues to show seller dominance intraday. Despite DOT's strong rebound today, price action is near the high of the daily range, pointing to increased intraday volatility and renewed buying strength. However, a clear divergence is present between this daily surge and the predominantly bearish, oversold backdrop from oscillators.

Downside risk prevails as oversold conditions cap further gains

Over the next five sessions, DOT will likely trade within a typical volatility band between $1.18 and $1.42 as the oversold condition gradually resolves. The probability of a further price increase remains very low, under 20%, while downside risk prevails. A sustained move above $1.42 could target the next resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun. If DOT drops below $1.18, further declines could occur in line with the ongoing higher timeframe downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees DOT’s recent bounce as technically unconvincing. He notes that negative momentum signals and a clear downtrend persist, with oversold conditions keeping risk tilted to the downside. Resistance at $1.42 remains a key barrier and he questions the sustainability of today’s rally. "Until DOT reclaims the MA-50 or prevails above $1.42 with strong volume, I consider this rebound to be only a temporary pause in a broader bearish trend."

Previously it was reported that Polkadot’s DOT token remains in a protracted downtrend, reflecting sustained capital outflows and diminished speculative activity, with the price consolidating at recent lows following significant volatility. Key technical indicators show trading activity and momentum are subdued, while structural support appears near current levels but upside is capped amid weak recovery signals.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.