JPMorgan warns of potential Bitcoin decline amid U.S.–Iran conflict
JPMorgan analysts have warned that Bitcoin’s price could decline again despite its recent rally to around $74,000. According to the bank, market reactions to geopolitical conflicts often follow patterns similar to those seen during Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Experts noted that investors initially held onto risk assets when the war began. However, about a month later—once it became clear the conflict would be prolonged and push inflation higher due to rising energy prices—markets began to fall. CoinGape reported on the analysis.
How Bitcoin reacted during the Ukraine war
According to JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a similar scenario could unfold this time. When the war in Ukraine started, Bitcoin first surged by nearly 40% before later dropping by around 67%.Analysts believe the market could follow a similar trajectory again — an initial short-term rally driven by uncertainty, followed by a correction if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran lasts longer than expected. Some experts also suggest that Bitcoin could rise to around $80,000 before another downturn begins. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that the current rally could be a “dead cat bounce” if US stock markets start to decline.
ETF inflows and derivatives boosted the rally
Analysts at CryptoQuant noted that renewed inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have played a key role in supporting the recent price rebound. According to market data, ETFs recorded $458 million in net inflows on the first trading day after the conflict escalated.Another factor was the mass closure of short positions in the derivatives market, which triggered a short squeeze. Rising open interest combined with negative funding rates led to large short liquidations, helping push BTC above $70,000.
What on-chain data shows
Blockchain data currently paints a mixed market picture. On the bearish side, the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio remains below 1, indicating underlying market weakness. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has returned to positive territory, signaling renewed demand for Bitcoin from US investors.Earlier, it was also reported that gold prices rebounded above $5,100 as renewed tensions with Iran increased demand for safe-haven assets.
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