Bitcoin slips as US threatens Iran over Strait of Hormuz closure

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Bitcoin slides 2.25% today amid volatility

Highlights

Rising conflict risk in the Middle East, including US threats against Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has driven market declines and elevated global inflation risk.
Iranian state-backed miners are increasing Bitcoin sales on exchanges to bypass sanctions and fund imports, linking geopolitical events to crypto market flows.
BTC remains pressured below key technical thresholds, with a likely range of $68,000–$69,800 and a higher probability of downside movement given weak trend signals.

Iran-linked BTC flows rise as US threat heightens Middle East risks

On March 22, escalating tensions in the Middle East have been triggered by a direct military threat from the United States to Iran demanding the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in market declines and heightened risk of oil supply disruption. The threat of US military action against Iranian infrastructure has increased the likelihood of regional conflict, intensifying global macroeconomic risk and inflation expectations. Iranian state-backed mining operations continue to monetize surplus energy by selling large volumes of Bitcoin to circumvent US-led financial sanctions and support import funding, directly linking geopolitical sanctions regimes to increased on-chain BTC exchange activity.

Technical levels under pressure as mixed momentum clouds outlook

BTC is trading below all major moving averages, including the 20-day ($70,338.41), 50-day ($69,588.30), and 200-day ($92,810.38), with the Ichimoku Kijun at $69,255.14 acting as resistance. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: the D1 MACD signals a short-term buy, while ADX and RSI (48.80) remain weak, indicating a lack of strong trend and prevailing sell territory. Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, BBP signals overbought conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. BTC currently trades in the middle of today’s range ($68,340.18 — $69,588.78), with recent seller dominance and moderate volatility; divergence among oscillators and momentum cautions against taking signals at face value.

Downside favored as lack of buying momentum caps rebound odds

For the coming week, BTC is expected to fluctuate in the $67,958 to $69,783 range, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a rise is assessed as very low (less than 20%), while the likelihood of further decline is more pronounced, as no relevant weekly trend indicators provide buy signals. The baseline scenario sees BTC remaining rangebound between $68,000 and $69,800. A breakout above $69,800 could occur if momentum or sentiment improves, but this outcome appears unlikely; a move below $68,000 would reinforce the short-term downtrend toward the support zone’s lower boundary.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin remaining under pressure amid heightened geopolitical risk and deteriorating technicals. He believes price is suppressed below key moving averages, with oscillators failing to confirm a bullish reversal. The lack of strong momentum and mounting macro risk point to a cautious, rangebound outlook near $68,000 – $69,800. As Kharitonov notes: "No convincing trend is developing — I remain defensive until the price decisively breaks above resistance or finds firmer support."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin faced a broadly bearish trend, with persistent seller pressure and heightened sensitivity to external geopolitical risks. The recent escalation in Middle East tensions and increased Iranian Bitcoin exchange activity add a new dimension to this outlook, reinforcing downside risks and making a decisive move below $68,000 the key level to watch for a potential acceleration of the short-term downtrend.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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