U.S. soldier arrested after profiting from bets on Maduro capture
The U.S. Department of Justice has arrested active-duty Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke. He is accused of using classified information about a military operation targeting Nicolás Maduro to profit from bets on Polymarket.
According to prosecutors, 38-year-old Van Dyke was involved in planning and executing the January operation to detain Maduro. At the same time, he created a Polymarket account in December and began placing bets on markets related to Venezuela and the fate of the country’s former president, The Block reports.
Investigators say the soldier placed 13 bets totaling more than $33,000. These included wagers on whether Maduro would leave office by the end of January and on the timing of a potential U.S. invasion of Venezuela. In total, Van Dyke reportedly earned about $410,000.
After reports of suspicious trading surfaced, he allegedly attempted to hide his identity. Prosecutors claim Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his account.
Consequences of the scheme
The case has once again raised concerns about the risks of prediction markets — platforms where users bet on the outcomes of political, economic, and other events. Following the Maduro-related bets, U.S. lawmakers began discussing potential restrictions for officials and others with access to sensitive information.
Van Dyke faces multiple charges, including violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and unlawful monetary transactions. He could face up to 60 years in prison if convicted.
In parallel, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed a civil complaint, seeking to recover illicit profits, restitution, and additional penalties.
Polymarket said it cooperated with the Department of Justice. The platform noted that it reported the user to authorities after identifying trading activity based on classified government information.
What is Polymarket and how it works
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users place bets on the outcomes of real-world events. Unlike traditional betting services, it focuses not on sports but on politics, economics, technology, and even weather. Users buy “shares” in outcomes — such as “yes” or “no” — and profit if their prediction turns out to be correct. The price of these shares fluctuates based on demand and reflects the market’s view of the probability of an event.
Users can bet on a wide range of scenarios. For example, whether a specific candidate will win an election, if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, whether the SEC will approve an ETF, or when a particular law will pass. There are also more unusual markets — such as whether a conflict will end within a certain timeframe or whether Bitcoin will reach a specific price. Because of such bets, Polymarket often draws attention, especially when there are concerns about the use of insider information.
It is also worth noting that Polymarket plans to launch its own stablecoin.
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